Jeff Saut: Downside Hedging Now an Absolute Necessity MV Respect Nov 10, 2008 10:35 am |
![]() |
![]() |
|
||||||||||||
|
If, however, he moves to the center, providing a stimulus package not designed to give checks to everybody -- which historically has provided only a short-term boost to the economy -- but rather to inject funds into infrastructure projects like bridges, roads, etc., the multiplier effect for the economy would be significant. Combine this with a thoughtfully conceived plan to stabilize housing prices, and the economic impact could also be significant.
More importantly, as the astute GaveKal organization opines:
“Probably the most important economic transformation which is about to occur is the transformation in personal leadership. Suppose you believe, as I do, that the financial meltdown triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was not a divinely ordained retribution for decades of greed and profligacy, but simply a bizarre accident, caused by the incompetence of the Bush Administration, particularly of Mr. Paulson.
"In that case, the arrival of a credible new economic team in Washington, led by respected figures such as Messrs Volcker, Summers and Geithner, could transform psychology in global financial markets. With house prices stabilizing and an inspiring new leader replacing the doltish President Bush, American consumer and business confidence could enjoy a similar resurgence.”
The call for this week: I’m hopeful that President-Elect Barack Obama will move to the center and take the aforementioned path. If so, the October 10th “lows” should hold. Moreover, my firm’s studies of past elections show that the first “move” by the equity markets following Presidential elections have typically been a wrong-way move. We’re hopeful that’s the case this time.
It’s also interesting that many of the indices have traced out in the charts what could be a reverse head-and-shoulders bottom.
However, the path isn’t certain, which is why my firm has recommended downside “hedges” on most trading, as well as investment, positions. As recommended last week, those trading positions include: ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO); ProShares Ultra Financial (UYG); ProShares Ultra Real Estate (URE); and ProShares Ultra Basic Materials (UYM), the first 3 of which were recommended with a hedge. As for many of the convertible preferreds recommended for investment accounts, given the rally in some of these shares, the idea of hedging partial positions hereto makes some sense.
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange |
|
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| add rss feed | free article alerts |
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennesee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Local Guides
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennesee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Local Guides


















