Darden Serves Up Some Bad News Glenn Curtis Aug 27, 2008 8:15 am |
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More specifically, the chain said that excluding certain adjustments and costs it expects to earn 60 to 62 cents a share in its Q1.The trouble with that is that per Yahoo Finance the company had been expected to turn in 75 cents a share.
What happened?
Reuters quoted a Darden spokesman as saying, “people were not in the restaurants in the volume we were anticipating."
Geez, I could have told you that.
But seriously folks, this news is a problem for the company because the letdown comes at what I think is a bad time. I mean, tax loss selling season is just around the corner, and with the stock now more than 37% off its 52-week high, I’m concerned it could take an even bigger beating.
Also think about what this might potentially mean for other players in this space. I mean if these chains aren’t ripping the cover off the ball, how are other, perhaps less well-known chains going to fare? I think it’s also got to be making the folks over at Brinker (EAT), which owns the Chili’s concept, a little nervous too.
Another tidbit tossed in the press release that turned me off was its same-store sales forecast. More specifically, Darden indicated that this, “combined U.S. same-restaurant sales, are expected to decline -1.1% versus the prior year.”
Folks, that’s pretty lousy.
Also, digging down a bit deeper the company said it expects a 2.4% same-restaurant jump at Olive Garden. Now that’s not the end of the world by any stretch, but I would point out that the number doesn’t appear to be all that impressive given that in the year that just ended the concept posted a 4.9% jump in US same-restaurant sales.
Finally, per Reuters, “excluding one-time items, it expects earnings to be flat to up 5 percent from the $2.74 it posted in fiscal year 2008, down from a previous forecast calling for a 9 percent to 10 percent increase.”
My concern about that is how do you think that the analyst community will react? I suspect that we may see a flurry of adverse reports being disseminated in the days ahead.
In sum, this news took me by surprise and I think it’s going to be viewed as a negative for the company and its shareholders. That being said, I do believe that toward the end of the year the stock could end up being a heck of a bargain.
A full release is due out on September 16th after the close. Stay tuned.
Darden closed at $28.25, down $4.01 or 12.43%.
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