Editor's Note: The following was posted on the Buzz & Banter at 3:54 pm. It rounds out a day's worth of vibes from Toddo, the rest of which can be seen in Random Thoughts: Bull Costume Update and Random Thoughts: Big Ben Chimes.


I was just asked on live TV if lower crude is responsible for the resurgence in retail. My response was "Be very careful with causal assumptions. If the airlines have a -0.26 correlation to crude over the last ten years, I would venture to guess that retail assumptions would be equally flawed.

I pulled up the chart of the RTH (retail holders) and saw that this consumer proxy is quickly approaching breakdown resistance. 

While I remain constructive on the market in the near-term (above S&P 1250), it's worth noting that retail is a natural candidate for the next phase of the credit crisis. I have little doubt that this will manifest in time, the question, quite naturally, is when that time will arrive.

While I've got you--and because I can't shake the vibe that the first move is the false move (after the FOMC)--I'm gonna sneak that last leg out of the metaphorical bull costume. Again, the potential for a further liftage remains--more on this dynamic tomorrow morning--but trades are made to be taken and I'll humbly take a 400-point 24-hour gain.

May peace be with you.

R.P.