Why China’s Growth May Be a Mirage

Josh Lipton  Nov 03, 2009 12:15 am

Why China’s Growth May Be a Mirage
 
Some strategists don’t believe the hype.
 

 
Open up that fortune cookie and the message couldn’t be simpler: The Chinese economy is going gangbusters.

The boys in Beijing managed to drive home a near 9% real GDP growth rate in the third quarter. More evidence that the economy over there is revving up: The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.2 in October from 54.3 in September. A reading above 50 suggests expansion.

An index of export orders climbed to 54.5 from 53.3. Interestingly, there was also a jump in the import index to 52.8 from 50.7, demonstrating a pick-up in domestic demand.

Investors liked what they heard: In afternoon trading on Monday, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI), an exchange-traded fund that tracks 25 of the largest Chinese companies, climbed 2.2%.

The FXI is up 69% in the past 12 months.

Other data coming out of China recently has been equally dramatic, economists emphasize: Real retail sales are running at 16.5%; car sales are up 78% year-over-year; 2.6 million TV sets were sold between September 26 to October 8 -- up 120% on a year-over-year basis.

Proud of the super-sized flat-screen in your living room? Don’t be. The average Chinese family now has a flat-screen TV larger than yours: 37 inches there versus 33 inches here.

Could there possibly be a clearer sign of Pax Americana’s decline?

But, before signing onto the well-told story of the China miracle, we checked in quickly with a couple of contrarian investment pros that don’t believe the hype when it comes to China.

These strategists laid out what they consider the risks, as they see it, for our brothers in Beijing.

The Chinese economy is booming, no doubt, but the key question to answer is whether this growth is natural or due to massive fiscal stimulus. Indeed, this is exactly what worries Vitaliy Katsenelson, vice president and portfolio manager with Investment Management Associates in Denver.

“The government in China is afraid of the economy slowing down,” Katsenelson tells us. “Remember, there is no social safety net there. High unemployment means hunger and riots. This is why China had such a huge stimulus package.”
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Comments (5) See All Comments »
11-03-2009, 8:36 am
The Chinese have the money reserves to pump their economy for as long as it takes to wait for the global slowdown to return to a more normal situation. It's not as if the US doesn't subsidize or stimulate all kinds of industries, all the
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11-03-2009, 11:33 am
For all you myoptic, blind,dim-witted,
math, science, engineer-challenged China doubters, bashers, haters, stop your day dreaming and try to grasp and understand the big picture and get some proper prospective of Chinese future for your own and
Read More
11-03-2009, 11:39 am
No empire has been built on services -- combining millions of financial black-hole derivative traders, and fat-head politicians, managers, ceos, and pretty waiters, waitresses, nurses or doctors, and IT programmers, cleaners and gardeners, this servi
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11-03-2009, 2:30 pm
My Brother

I am glad this is the writing of an individual. We all have our place in the world and having the largest chip on ones shoulder is not always healthy and tends to come across as intimidating for the average man just making his
Read More
11-11-2009, 4:21 pm
Fac Yu - In representing yourself as a Chinese American, your diatribe suggests you have not had a fulfilling or otherwise successful personal experience in the US. Those that do are not so prone to the vitriolic and xenophobic rant you contributed
Read More
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