Reading the Elliott Triangle

David Waggoner  Feb 10, 2009 3:15 pm

Reading the Elliott Triangle
 
Get an edge with this crucial trading principle.
 

 
If a move up from one boundary to the next doesn’t breakdown into at least a simple a-b-c zigzag move, then it probably isn’t complete. Conversely, many of the triangles I see labeled with more than 5 waves include a complex a-b-c wave that's being double counted.

Even before this requirement is met, it's all about context. An Elliott rule is that “a triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final wave in the pattern of one larger degree.” This statement simply means that there are only 3 possible Elliott wave-pattern locations where a triangle can occur; location, location, location. Knowing if current price action is even ripe for a triangle can eliminate 90% of false triangles.

The most common location is the fourth wave of a 5-wave motive/impulse wave; next is the B wave of an A-B-C pattern; and third is the less common location of a final X wave complex double or triple-combination corrective pattern

I'll start with the most abstract placement of a triangle, which is the X wave in a complex combination corrective pattern. In this chart, I show an A-B-C zigzag followed by a triangle (with 5 boundary touches), then another A-B-C zigzag. The triangle is the connecting X wave.


Click to enlarge


Looking at the same chart, if the price pattern started at the lower left B and completed 5 waves going into the triangle, then 5 more waves of equal proportion upon exiting the triangle, the triangle would be a B wave of an A-B-C pattern. In classic technical analysis, this type of pattern would also be called a pennant (a pennant flies at half-mast). An Elliott A-B-C pattern with a triangle as the B wave is an example of what I call the truth (Elliott interpretation) and the periphery (classic interpretation).

Finally, if price is in a trending market and has completed a 3-wave pattern where the third wave is a 1.618 or 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the first wave, and price then enters into sideways zigzagging pattern, there's a high probability that price is in a fourth-wave triangle pattern.


Click to enlarge



Click to enlarge


If you track an Elliott triangle through completion of an E wave, there's a high probability that the next wave is the breakout wave. This knowledge provides a superior entry point compared to attempting to trade a triangle breakout. Elliott triangles, like all chart patterns, appear in every time frame but appear less often than the classic triangle interpretation. It's a case of quality, not quantity.
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Comments (9) See All Comments »
02-11-2009, 11:40 am
three waves can extend into corrective combination patterns in any leg of a triangle, and it is still 3 waves. For example zigzags become double zigzags, etc. This includes another triangle. Good eye. Move to the head of the class.
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02-11-2009, 3:13 pm
I think you are mixing up impulse wave behavior characteristics with corrective wave structure. Apples and oranges.
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02-11-2009, 6:39 pm
A third wave is a third wave no matter if it occurs in a 5-wave impulse wave or a 3-wave corrective wave. Are not C waves typically more dynamic than A waves? Indeed, they are. A third wave of a third wave -- no matter if it occurs in an impulse wave
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02-11-2009, 10:42 pm
Wave C of the triangle is labeled as a double zigzag. It would be a double zigzag even if it wasn't in the context of wave C of a triangle. In the first zigzag up to W, wave c is exactly a .618 Fibonacci extension of wave a which is a common ex
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03-03-2009, 5:58 pm
Prof Waggoner,

Congratulations on nailing the call on the symmetrical contracting triangle on the S&P 500! Very nice call. Although the E wave did not fully touch the A-C trendline, I have assumed that it is still a valid triangle
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