Is a 30-second commercial that runs during the Super Bowl really worth $3 million?

Hell, yes, say the companies that lined up to buy spots during the NBC-hosted game in 2009. The network's line-up sold out for the Superbowl broadcast, which ended up being the highest-rated in history and the second most-watched program in US history. The game had an average of 98.7 million viewers, beating out the 2008 Super Bowl’s average of 97.5 million. In total, 151.6 million people watched at least a part of the game according to Nielsen.

“The Super Bowl has done an incredible job of getting viewers to watch, even enjoy, commercials,” says pricing expert Rafi Mohammed, author of the book The Art of Pricing (Crown Publishing, 2005) on his site, Pricing For Profit. “What other television event has hooked viewers into actually wanting to watch commercials? Commercials are a part of the Super Bowl -- we look forward to them and talk about them the next day with our co-workers.”

The Super Bowl is a particularly desirable medium for advertisers looking to reach both casual and committed sports fans. It’s one game, on one night. The NBA Finals and MLB’s World Series are events that take at least four games, and up to seven, over a much longer window of time to crown a champion. Still, the MLB All-Star Game, which airs on Fox (NWS), is another lucrative money-making option for the networks. The 2009 game was seen by 33.6 million viewers -- the most since 1999 -- and featured ads by Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Pepsi (PEP), State Farm, Sharp, Gillette, and Taco Bell (YUM).

That mega sports events draw an awful lot of eyeballs is undisputed. But in the case of the Super Bowl, can spending $100,000 a second (excluding the additional extensive costs of production) really result in a positive return on investment for companies like Coca Cola (KO), PepsiCo, Audi, Hyundai, Bridgestone, GoDaddy.com, E*Trade Financial (ETFC), Pedigree or Anheuser-Busch? A 2004 Harris Interactive study says yes. But other experts aren't so sure. In fact, Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management has its own review dedicated to tracking Super Bowl ads.

Derek Rucker, associate professor of marketing at Kellogg School of Management, normally touts the benefits of paying the network's fee to get brand exposure. However, he writes on the school's blog, "I’ve also been very cautionary about the ability to gauge effectiveness.” In fact, he has co-authored an article about how “difficult, and perhaps impossible, a task it would be to accurately measure Super Bowl return on investment.”

One thing that is clear is that network that airs the game is in for a windfall. When last year’s game was over, NBC walked away with $206,000,000. Not bad for a couple of hours of work.

For the 2010 game, however, some experts have predicted that the network's profits will be shaved. Next year's broadcast rights go to CBS, which may need to reduce its asking price per spot, says Tim Calkins, also a professor at Kellogg. "Demand will almost certainly be down; companies are slashing marketing budgets in a bid to protect profits in a slumping economy. New companies, in particular, are not likely to be buying many Super Bowl spots this year. When cash is tight, spending heavily to quickly ramp up awareness is incredibly risky for a startup."

He suggests that CBS cut official prices by at least 30%, to $2.1 million per 30 seconds. What a deal.

Continue reading this story, below, or click on a category to see who wins and who loses when the big game comes to town.