Why We Still Haven't Reached Bottom

Vinny Catalano  Jun 26, 2009 1:55 pm

Why We Still Haven't Reached Bottom
 
Assessing the rally's strength, identifying new leaders.
 

 
In the case of emerging markets, the bell has rung. But not so with developed economies -- and that's one of the 2 key benefits of the productive exercise:

1. It will help identify which areas are likely to produce above-consensus earnings expectations as the second-quarter results come in.

2. It will help determine which stocks will be the leaders, should the bottoming process (in developed economies) be completed.

Investment Strategy Implications

Despite the big rally, there's still a ton of cash sitting in money-market funds. In fact, little of the money sitting in these accounts has been deployed for stocks. This strongly suggests that most of the rally thus far has been a combination of short-covering and hedge-fund action, and not much in the way of longer-term investment funds from individuals and more traditional institutional investors.

There's lots of fuel to further the stock-market fire -- especially if the theory that earnings will come in above consensus expectations proves true. The markets’ proof will be in the economic and earnings pudding since earnings season either rewards or rejects the faith placed in an economic and profitability recovery.

In the process, stocks may exhibit rotational strength. This would indicate which sectors will surprise to the earnings upside, as well as which ones will lead in the next phase of the cyclical bull rally.

As you can see, it's a highly productive exercise with substantial financial benefits for those who wish to take advantage of a (seemingly) dull moment.
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Comments (7) See All Comments »
06-26-2009, 8:23 pm
"Despite the big rally, there's still a ton of cash sitting in money-market funds. In fact, little of the money sitting in these accounts has been deployed for stocks. This strongly suggests that most of the rally thus far has been a comb
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06-27-2009, 6:39 pm
It wouldn't suprise me if the gov't has been pumping fake (monetized) money through dummy accounts into the mkt since March periodically through brokerage accounts. Just imagine them doing this through Goldman and a few other top account
Read More
06-27-2009, 11:53 pm
MTB,

You are onto something. It would also explain their facility in driving the market back up after each drop that has occurred just prior to/during each Treasury auction. I have spoken to dozens, if not hundreds of wealthy people ov
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06-28-2009, 11:14 pm
How totally depressing this all is. There is nothing organic in the "green shoots" (oh how I hate that phrase) or "mustard seeds" (hate that one too) certain commentators keep ranting about. Can such an artificially engineered
Read More
06-29-2009, 4:44 am
William,

I can't tell you if this is true or not, but it is something I saw in a dream a few months ago and thought was very possible. When you wrote what you were thinking, it triggered my dream back. The sad thing is, in my drea
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