Answers I Really Wanna Know: Was That A Short-Term Low?-Minyanville

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Answers I Really Wanna Know: Was That A Short-Term Low?

Todd Harrison Oct 07, 2008 7:50 am

Answers I Really Wanna Know: Was That A Short-Term Low?


		How will the Street react to yesterday's decline?

Wasn’t the path of maximum frustration “straight down” on Monday?
Did the 12.7% S&P melt from Friday’s high to yesterday’s low shake out the “We’ve got a bailout—everything is gonna be alright!” crowd?
If emotion is the enemy when trading, what does it say that some of the more emotional types sounded the Armageddon Alarm yesterday?
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Not to mention every major paper in the free world?
To be clear, we understand the difference between “picking a bottom” and “picking our spots” for a trade, right?
As we did on March 17th and July 16th?
The same people I asked to please pay attention entering September (they assured me the weren’t invested in the markets, they just had their 401(k)) pinged yesterday afternoon to alert me that we’ve entered a Depression?
The point of recognition is arriving in waves?
What’s capitulation?
Does VXO 69.50 satisfy our nonsensical notion that we would tick at VXO 70 upon capitulation?
During the past month, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by approximately 50% or $500 billion dollars?
While Europe is arguably in worse shape than the U.S., doesn’t the greenback have to devalue?
Isn’t that what the other side of Our Wishbone World look like?
One where asset classes rally but the measuring stick declines at an accelerated pace?
When will China revalue the Yuan?
Is anyone really that surprised that Bank America (BAC) slashed its dividend and will offer $10 billion in a secondary?
In addition to “lower crude is equity positive,” can we please—and finally—debunk that a higher dollar is good for stocks?
What if the Pakistan Karachi wrote a viable script to the short selling ban?
Don’t you know that when you mess with Mother Nature, she tends to get pissed?
Societal Acrimony? What Societal Acrimony?
Did Minyans “see” that I pared some of my “diaper effect” upside exposure into the 55 handle S&P rally (off the lows) and slipped one leg out of my bull costume (leaving one leg, or 25% upside confidence)?
And you’re not reading the Buzz & Banter why?
For if you did, you would have witnessed that I punted my GLD puts (for a small gain), parceled out of partial QLD and kept (most of) my energy exposure through Weatherford (WFT) and Transocean (RIG) rentals?


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Comments (10)

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Jim M

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10-07-2008, 11:49 am
Years ago a friend told me that while drilling on the North Slope they were encountering mahogany at depths of 1000 feet which implies that the North Pole area was at on time tropical. That would mean that for some reason the earth tilted or flopped Read More

Margaret Bennett

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10-07-2008, 12:14 pm
Hi Todd, I am interested in your macro estimate of the deleveraging: derivatives of all sorts vs problem mortgages of all sorts. Thanks Read More

John Ryskamp

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10-07-2008, 2:16 pm
What you don't seem to understand is that the Dow will reach 1200, probably in 3 weeks. We have an economic collapse now. Since nothing can be valued, we have to turn our attention to facts. We must have an immediate ban on hou Read More

Matthew Svetlecic

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10-07-2008, 8:02 pm
You need at least 1M in cds to cover a potential loss! Read More

Scott Seifer

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10-08-2008, 3:10 pm
S&P 973 was the floor today. For now. Fibonnaci point of the Oct 2007 closing high. A bounce now? High high? Enough to sucker people in? Then where is the real bottom? That's what concerns me. Read More


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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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