Boeing (BA) is taking the long view of the highly cyclical aircraft industry.

Looking past the current downturn, the company sees steady earnings owing to a backlog of about 3700 jets that will take 7 to 8 years to build at current production rates.

The company has slashed about 4500 positions, but that’s far less than the 30,000 who lost their jobs following the September 11 terrorist attacks. Significantly, none of the cuts were made on Boeing’s production line.

Boeing is betting on continued demand for new planes after the economy rebounds. But it’s unclear how much of the backlog will hold up as cancellations continue to pile up in the downturn.

Battered airlines won’t hesitate to cancel orders, even if it means incurring stiff penalties. If carriers negotiate delayed deliveries, Boeing’s earnings will take a short-term hit.

Some analysts believe Boeing won’t be pinched until next year. Financing is now available for new planes, but that could change after 2009.

Demand for air freight services is down sharply, and this could contribute to fewer orders for new planes in the future. Boeing delivered 22 new planes in the first 2 months of this year, down from 195 for the same period a year ago, USA Today reports.

There’s no way around economic pain in the current downturn. The key for Boeing is managing production, and so far they’ve done okay. But it’s not difficult to imagine that Airbus, owned by the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company, will subsidize future orders in an effort to save jobs.

If current conditions hold or get worse in the future, it sure looks like Boeing will experience some turbulence ahead.



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