No Life Support for GM

John Mauldin  Nov 17, 2008 2:30 pm

No Life Support for GM
 
No bailout - but a bridge loan could help with transition.
 

 
A restructured GM with realistic costs could be quite competitive. At some point after the restructuring, the pension plans could float the stock on the market and get some real value. If actual pensions need to be adjusted, then so be it.

While that’s sad for the GM pensioners, is it any sadder than for Delta (DAL) or United Airlines (UAUA) or steel-company pensioners who saw their benefits go down? For the vast majority of Americans, no one guarantees their full retirement. Why should auto trade unions be any different?

Taxpayers in one form or another are going to have to pay something. Unemployment costs, increased contributions to the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, job training, relocation and other costs will be borne. So, it’s in our interest to get involved so as to minimize our costs, as well as help preserve as many jobs as possible.

Sadly, I think it’s likely that a Democratic majority next year will quickly pass a bailout that will not solve any of the longer-term problems. Obama evidently wants to appoint an "automotive czar;" and the name being floated is the former Michigan Representative David Bonior, whose anti-trade and pro-union positions are well known. This is appointing the fox to guard the hen house. It is not a recipe for the restructuring that is needed.

The bailout for GM is a bailout for the trade unions and management. US consumers are simply going to buy fewer cars in the future. That is a fact. Spending $50 billion does not address that reality. That $50 billion can be better spent by helping workers who lose their jobs. Without serious reforms, a bailout will simply postpone the problem, and there will be a need for more money in a few years. And do we think that the management which got GM into the current mess is the group to bring them out?

The argument that "we bailed out Wall Street, so why not GM" doesn't hold water. What we did and are doing is to try to keep the financial system functioning, so we don't see the world economy simply shut down. But don't tell the 125,000 people who have lost jobs on Wall Street that it was a bailout. That number is likely to go to 200,000. No one thinks that a restructured GM would see anywhere close to half that number of job losses.

Do we protect Circuit City (CC)? Sun Microsystems (JAVA) just announced plans to lay off 6,000 workers. Where is their bailout? Citigroup (C) announced 50,000 further job cuts today. This is a recession. And sadly that means a lot of jobs are going to be lost. GM workers should have no more right to their jobs than a Sun or Citibank or Circuit City worker.

Now, would I be opposed to a bridge loan to help in the transition? No, because a viable Detroit is good for the country and will cost the taxpayer less in the long run than if we have to pick up their pension benefits. But any money must come with realistic reforms that put in charge new management and a realistic cost structure so GM can compete.
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Comments (2) See All Comments »
11-17-2008, 3:29 pm
I think you hit the nail on the head with the "realistic cost structure" comment.

Not only is GM management to blame, but there are other systemic problems that helped put it into its current position:

1. The
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11-17-2008, 5:38 pm
The traditional cure for that was accepting the consequences... new management, Chapter 11, Chaper 8, being bought by smarter companies, etc.

The new cure will be to throw taxpayer money at the problem, leave the existing management in c
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