No Life Support for GM

John Mauldin  Nov 17, 2008 2:30 pm

No Life Support for GM
 
No bailout - but a bridge loan could help with transition.
 

 
The litany of reasons is long. At the top of the list are union contracts which mandate high costs and pension plans which cannot be met. Then there is the problem of many years of poorly designed cars, although they are now getting their act together. We can also discuss poor management and bloated costs, like paying multiple thousands of workers who aren’t actually working. GM is structured for the 50% market share they used to command, whereas now they only have 20%.

Wilbur Ross, a well-known multi-billionaire investor, said on CNBC that allowing GM to go bankrupt would throw the country into what sounded like a depression. Of course, he does have an auto parts company which supplies GM; so he, as my Dad would say, does have a dog in that hunt.

Ross said that we as a nation are to blame for GM's problems (I am not making this up) because we don’t have a national industrial policy. The US allowed other automotive companies to build plants in states that had lower labor costs, and that’s the reason GM is uncompetitive. GM pays an average of $33 an hour, and those selfish other companies pay a mere $19 plus a host of benefits.

Ross evidently believes that because some states have lower taxes and right to work laws that it’s the responsibility of the taxpayer to give GM a certain type of immortality rather than suggest GM deal with its problems directly. I assume that Ross also sides with the French when they suggest that Ireland should raise taxes so they will not have to compete with Ireland for business.

Let's all acknowledge that letting GM go bankrupt would not be a good thing. But it’s not the end of the US automotive industry, nor even that of GM. In a bankruptcy, the debt holders line up to come up with a restructuring plan so that they can maximize the return of their loans or obligations. The shareholders get wiped out, but with GM down over 95%, that has largely been accomplished already. That process has happened with airlines, steel companies and tens of thousand of other companies. It’s called creative destruction.

First, let's understand that the real owners of GM are the pension plans. They are the entities with the largest obligations and the most to lose. They are the biggest stakeholders in a successful GM. Giving them the responsibility for making a new, leaner, meaner GM with realistic union contracts would be rational; otherwise they would lose most of what they have.

Factories need to be closed. Auto sales are down to 11 million cars a year, the lowest since 1982. Automotive companies sold cars at such low prices in the last few years that sales went to 16 million a year. But the cars that have been sold will last for a long time. Few people are going to buy a new car when the old one is working fine, especially in a recession and a Muddle Through economy. Further, does GM really need 8 automotive lines, some of which have been losing money for years?
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Comments (2) See All Comments »
11-17-2008, 3:29 pm
I think you hit the nail on the head with the "realistic cost structure" comment.

Not only is GM management to blame, but there are other systemic problems that helped put it into its current position:

1. The
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11-17-2008, 5:38 pm
The traditional cure for that was accepting the consequences... new management, Chapter 11, Chaper 8, being bought by smarter companies, etc.

The new cure will be to throw taxpayer money at the problem, leave the existing management in c
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