Between the Ticks: Watch Key S&P Levels-Minyanville

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Between the Ticks: Watch Key S&P Levels

Jeffrey Cooper Nov 15, 2007 12:15 pm


		Only in the fullness of time will we know whether Tuesday's explosion will mark a similar Turn In The Tide.

Cameco (CCJ) looks like it wants to go lower -- does it have eyes for the 40 strike?
4 of the last 6 days the market has ended at its lows: remember it is the close that traders take home with them.
The Ag stocks such as CF Industries (CF) and Mosaic (MOS) look like they are rolling over after kissing and squeezing their overhead 20 dma's yesterday -- you know the Holy Grail, as many traders key buying and sellling in the short term off the 20 dma.
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Itron (ITRI), a former go-to glamor may be tracing out an UP-DOWN-UP Sequence at its 200 dma after falling out of bed recently and not being able to get back up: a Second Mouse move that recaptures the 200 dma after a seemingly failed attempt the other day could lead to a nice multi day snapper as ITRI becomes the beneficairy of some rotation and value buy side interest.
You know what they say: the second mouse gets the cheese -- at least that's what the first mouse says.
Apple (AAPL) is wound up between the 165 and 170 strikes after several w-i-d-e range wild days -- probal probably will see volatility dampen today and feed the Dukes. Of course Daisy Dukes could still stage another bear raid in the last hour.
Am I the only one that feels like trading the first and last hour and passing on the churn between the mid day ticks?
We had the follow through from yesterday's reversal and the 'obligatory' snapper into faint green plus territory. Now what?
Crashes are very very very rare events BUT trade below this week's lows could set off a domino chain of technical sell events not the least of which is the pivot du year, i.e. the 1397 level which is the mid point between the June 2006 low and the Oct. 2007 high.
Note that this summer's low held that point on a closing basis.
Noteworthy also is that Boom Boom stepped in to save the baby from the ugly bathwater on August 16 before the open -- right at 10% off the recent highs of the time.
A 10% decline off the highs currently equates with SPX 1420.
A break and close below that level could open up the flood gates as money mangers rush to save their year.
A break below that level will threaten a weekly 3 point trend line drawn from the bull market low of March 2003, and at the same time threaten another domino which is this year's BIG double bottom from March and August.
Remember what happened when the double bottoms in June broke.
Remember what happened when the double bottoms in October broke.
I recall that in the first week of Oct 1987 the largest one day rally in history to date occurred -- that was days before the beginning of the Waterfall of '87.
That rally saw no follow-through and defined a significant lower high.
Only in the fullness of time will we know whether Tuesday's explosion will mark a similar Turn In The Tide.


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