Six Reasons Not to Put Wendy's on Your Plate

Glenn Curtis  Jun 30, 2009 2:30 pm

Six Reasons Not to Put Wendy's on Your Plate
 
Despite merger, company still has a lot to prove.
 

 
I don’t indulge in fast food too often but every now and then, I do get the hankering for a good burger. And with having kids and being consistently on the run, sometimes a drive-through window is a blessing.

My favorites: McDonald's (MCD) and Wendy's (WEN), but Burger King (BKC) and Sonic (SONC) are a close second. In any case, today I’d like to focus on the company with the square burgers.

The Wendy’s concept offers up some super good eats. As evidence, I'd point to the news that was out today about its tasty fries. (Man, I’m getting hungry as I write.)

But is it tasty from an investment standpoint? Maybe not.

Some thoughts:

1. There’s a camp out there that says we should be keeping our eye on the company’s future cash-flow generation. I don’t disagree with that. However Wendy’s/Arby’s will have to turn in a few years of consistent cash-flow growth from this point for the investment community to seriously warm to this story. Wendy’s is viewed as a B-list fast-food play, so it’s really going to have to prove itself.

2. Consider all the competition little Wendy is headed up against these days -- particularly around lunch/dinner time. You’ve got the chains I mentioned earlier, as well as popular and convenient others like Starbucks (SBUX) and Dunkin' Donuts -- which brews up a good cup of coffee, I might add. You’ve also got the sit-down places, which are offering up some super attractive coupons that could lure consumers away, too.

3. Will Wendy’s/Arby’s ever be able to make the giant footprint that Mickey D’s does? According to its website, It “owns or franchises over 10,000 restaurants.” That's pretty big, to be sure. But it's nothing compared to McDonald's, whose website points out that it has "more than 31,000 local restaurants serving more than 58 million people in 118 countries each day."

4. Don’t forget how McDonald's tends to garner the lion’s share of press. Lately the talk in fast food seems to be about Mickey D’s efforts on the coffee front. Trying to steal ink away from that 800-pound gorilla isn’t going to be easy.

5. Wendy’s is going to have to build out a big breakfast business for analysts to really get jazzed up about these guys. And that’s turf that belongs to McDonald's.

6. The stock trades under $4. Unless management can find a way to promote the company to investors and get it north of $5, it’s going to remain under the radar.

I don’t want to count Wendy’s out. I like its food and periodically ring the register. But right now, I’d rather stick with my good ol’ buddy, Ronald.

Hey, have a great day
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