Shrinkage (shoplifting and employee theft) is a good indicator of general desperation levels. The annual global cost of shrinkage to retailers has now risen to an estimated at $105 billion, with the US accounting for almost 40% of that total.

Traditionally, stores like Wal-Mart depend on the eyes and ears of their sales staff to dissuade criminal behavior. With 38,000 US retail jobs lost last month alone, there are now many fewer employees per square foot. Detective Fleming’s call for more security guards isn’t a cry in the dark. Increasingly, stores like Wal Mart are going to be forced to hire additional security to protect their property, goods and personnel.

How can investors benefit from this trend? Most retailers hire and train their own security forces. Two big players in this space, Dunbar Amored and Loomis, are privately owned. Brinks (BCO) is a $1 billion company that’s been in operation since 1838. They provide armored vehicles, security personnel, and cash logistics to financial institutions and retailers around the world.

As times get tougher, the need for Brinks’ services is likely to increase. Just as a starving predator will attack prey it normally ignores, opportune thieves will find new targets. Having a floor manager walk 3 blocks to a bank with the day’s receipts may no longer be an acceptable risk. Insurance companies love security guards, and will typically charge lower premiums to retail businesses with trained security forces.

Brinks has recently spun off its less profitable Brinks Home Security Holdings (CFL) and sold its coal assets to Massey Energy Company (MEE). The company is now streamlined, focussed exclusively on protecting the cash deposits of retailers and financial institutions. Last year, Brinks had revenue of about $3.6 billion. The stock price is 65% off its 52-week high, although its business fundamentals are resistant to the weakening economy, and may in fact benefit from it.

Brinks has a trailing P/E of 5.1 and very healthy operating margin of 9.5%. Approximately 93% of the shares are owned by institutional and mutuall-fund owners. It has quarterly earnings growth (year-over-year) of 85%, and about $250 million cash in the bank.

Most people are inherently honest. But they’d steal to save their own lives or the lives of their children. This recession will inspire heroes. But it will also create a new class of criminal.

Three years ago, before the foreclosures and the job losses and the bankruptcies, there would have been fewer people lining up all night at Wal Mart to save a few dollars. And the people who were there would have been less inclined to push and shove.