A Slippery Slope Down for Green Mountain Coffee?

Lance Lewis  Jun 15, 2009 4:35 pm

A Slippery Slope Down for Green Mountain Coffee?
 
Keep an eye on GMCR as a potential short.
 

 
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) reminds me of a combination of Sunbeam, Pets.com, and Crocs (CROX). This coffee company trades at a whopping 70 times trailing earnings and carries a 2.3 billion market cap (or roughly 1/4 of Starbuck’s (SBUX) inflated market cap).

Insiders have been selling GMCR hand over fist over the past couple months. And the reason for the selling becomes clear when you realize that the stock is up nearly 300% YTD and is up nearly 100% just since the end of April when Wal-Mart (WMT) said it would begin carrying GMCR’s coffee makers.

Basically, it appears we’ve got a giant short squeeze occurring here (even the Fast Money guys on CNBC touted this piglet this week as a “buy” because it was “going to split 3 for 2 and just had to trade through 100 before the split”). 

And while I’m not sure I’d short the stock here, necessarily (I’d rather see it roll over first), it does look like something worth keeping an eye on as a potential short candidate. Once the upside momentum in names such as this one wanes, they typically go down hard and keep going down for a long time (pull up a chart of CROX over the past 2 years as an example).

For those so inclined to dabble on the short side, you need to do your own homework on GMCR, but it looks like an accident waiting to happen to me. The nutty action in this stock over the past few months also says something about the increasingly speculative nature of the equity market as well -- but with all the money printing that the Fed is doing, I guess that’s no surprise.
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06-16-2009, 12:32 am
Insiders selling "hand over fist"? From May 5 - present, a whopping 20k shares were sold, 0.19% of the 10.5 million shares (28% of the float) still held by insiders. All of the sales were exercises of options (for <$30, flipped for 3
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