And Schaeffer goes on to discuss another favorite topic of mine -- the seasonal nature of volatility.

"Equity volatility is seasonal. According to a recent study by Larry McMillan: 'There is also a seasonality to VIX trading patterns ...You can see several patterns (over the past 20 years). Early in the year, there is typically a small peak in VIX in January, followed by a slightly higher one in March.

"Then it goes into a decline during the spring and into mid-summer. It probably comes as a surprise to no one that the low in volatility occurs around July 1 of each year. What might come as a surprise though is that volatility typically rises quite a bit during July and August. Then it really gets going in the fall -- In September and October, when the stock market typically has major declines. It peaks in October.

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"After that, volatility becomes surprisingly docile for the rest of year, until by Christmas, it is almost back at the July lows. Not every year follows the pattern exactly, but most are a reasonable approximation. 2008 followed quite closely, and this year the pattern is typical as well.'

"So is it time to assume that the VIX will rally according to these past seasonal patterns? Perhaps, but I'd also suggest the possibility, based in part on the ongoing compression of historical volatility, that the VIX might continue to decline to surprisingly low levels -- perhaps as low as 20 -- before it bottoms."

Well, first off, I feel great that 2 of the absolute masters in this business agree with some data I discussed in my book. I came to similar conclusions regarding the early July cycle trough.

Which is also why it drives me nuts when I see "analysis" on the cheap VIX that fails to put it in its proper context, which took the form of assertive directional calls in both directions. On the one hand, analysts said "smart" options money was right to lower bids, as they "knew" the bull would continue this summer. On the other hand, they said 26 VIX was a red flag of complacency, and bearish.

In truth, neither interpretation was correct. It was a prediction that the always-slow start of summer was upon us, plain and simple.