Monday Morning Quarterback: Hungry Bulls Gobble Up Gains

Todd Harrison  Dec 01, 2008 8:00 am

Monday Morning Quarterback: Hungry Bulls Gobble Up Gains
 
The latest 20% rally was second best showing in history.
 

 
If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem and the onus is on us all to do our part.

Minyanville warned of the current collapse long before it arrived but there’s no benefit in looking back. Indeed, we’ve shifted our collective lens to helping our policy makers identify the smartest steps to take to help unwind this mess. Yes, time and price are the only true arbiters of our financial fate but make no mistake, the path we choose will shape the destination.

We’re asking the entire Minyan community for help. Take some time to share your views on the next best steps. This is an important juncture for both the markets and the world at large. It isn’t a red thing or a blue thing, it’s the only thing that matters as we find our way to better days and set the stage for future generations.

Some Random Thoughts:
 
  • Retail will set the tone today as the market digests Black Friday. While I’ve traditionally viewed this “tell” with skepticism, perception is reality in the marketplace and the sector is a focus. Please keep in mind that the Retail Holders (RTH) have rallied 14% since we eyed them as a potential upside surprise.

  • With a conscious nod to the “path” rather than the “destination,” there’s no realistic reason to believe that the current conundrum will be contained by historical precedence. FDR didn’t know what a derivative was nor were we in a global, finance-based economy during his tenure. Remember, this has been brewing for a long time.

  • With that said and respected, we must also remember that during The Great Depression, 75% of the country still worked, kids still went to college and formidable franchises such as Disney (DIS), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Texas Instruments (TXN) were born.

  • The Age of Austerity indeed. Having spent a wonderful weekend in the Baltimore burbs with my brother and his family—eating more food than a small farm animal—it’s clear from the discussions at various dinner tables that the Wall Street malaise has created a Main Street haze. People are scared and “thrift” is on everyone’s mind.

  • The most unbelievable aspect of this entire rescue process? That we still don’t have credit derivative transparency. The scariest part is that we all know this is at the top of their “to do” list and the lack of resolution speaks volumes about the magnitude of the issues at hand.

  • The notion of massive credit market intervention remains a viable if not probable event if current conditions don’t improve.

  • Our sincere condolences and white light extend to all those affected by the Mumbai terrorist attacks. A special wink to Professor Smita Sadana, who was in India at the time and is safely on her way to Festivus.

  • In terms of my current posture, I snuck to a screen and sold some of my remaining exposure on Friday. I continue to have a smallish weighting towards energy but nuts to guts and head to toe, I’m light, tight and ready to fight.

Finally, some housekeeping items as we ready for a big week in the ‘Ville…

We’ll gather the Critters at high noon tomorrow and head to the Rainbow Room for the Emmy Awards. We’ve been dutifully reminding ourselves—along with Hoofy and Boo—that the nomination is an honor in and of itself. With that said, if the stars align for our humble compatriots, rest assured that they’ll accept the hardware on behalf of the entire Minyanville community.

A dream is only as powerful as those who believe in it and without you, there would be no us.

Throughout the week, the Minyanville Professors will migrate to Manhattan for our annual Festivus to benefit The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children’s Education. The strength of our purpose is evident in that we’ve again SOLD OUT the event despite the current economic condition. On behalf of my grandfather, I’ll share a heartfelt “wink” and thank all those who support such a wonderful cause.

These are trying times indeed but we must remind ourselves that the purpose of the journey is the journey itself. In that vein and through that light, I’ll ask ye faithful for a touch of latitude on the content front this week as we welcome our own and sneak in some smiles.

May peace be with you.

R.P.


Please be advised that the 2008 Holiday Festivus to benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education has officially SOLD OUT as we tagged our magical 350 Minyan mark. If you (or someone you know) would still like to attend, shoot us an e-mail and we'll see what we can do. We strive to take care of our own in these parts and as always, we'll do our best to circle ye faithful.

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Comments (5) See All Comments »
12-01-2008, 8:03 am
In case you missed the sad news, Tanta from Calculated Risk passed away yesterday.

I assume many Minyans read CR as well and will want to post their condolences.


Read More
12-01-2008, 12:37 pm
Did you see this a few days ago:

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, a
Read More
12-01-2008, 12:49 pm
The Greeks had it right. Hubris always leads to retribution.
Proverbs also had it right. Pride goes before a fall.
The guy on "X Files" had it right. Trust no one.
And the Founding Fathers had it right. Checks and balanc
Read More
12-01-2008, 1:13 pm
"I think it is for more than just greed. I think they want investment in new supply to continue, and the World to become more energy efficient"

FYi,

I'm not making this comment because I think OPEC is ve
Read More
12-01-2008, 3:47 pm
"But it doesn't work, as even the rich cheat each other."

This comes from experience, or from Trump or Robert Ringer.

It's the basic law that the larger the deal, the more at stake, the more clever
Read More
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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