Ticker Shock: Four Reasons Not to Build On KB Home

Glenn Curtis  Jun 29, 2009 11:35 am

Ticker Shock: Four Reasons Not to Build On KB Home
 
Monday's top stories and stocks with potential to move.
 

On Friday, I mentioned I had a wedding to go to, and was worried I might not survive until the wee hours of the morning, the way I did when I was a younger buck. I'd like to report that I held up well, thank you very much. And that was in spite of peer pressure from 2 of my best friends: Jack Daniels and Sam Adams.

Asian stocks ended down -- but not by much. The Hang Seng was off 0.39% and the Nikkei was down 0.95%. However, Europe was in positive territory earlier this morning. And here in the US, we're currently trading higher.

Here’s what I’m focused on this morning:

KB Home (KBH):
 I wanted to weigh-in on the homebuilder’s second quarter because I didn’t get a chance to on Friday.

In the period ended May 31, it nailed down a loss of $1.03 a share. To be fair, the company did say that the number included $49.5 million in charges. In any case, the real chatter wasn’t really about that. I think the optimists were focused on the following lines from the release :

“Company-wide net orders for new homes in the second quarter were 2,910, down 31% from 4,200 in the second quarter of 2008 but up 59% from 1,827 net orders in the first quarter of 2009. The Company’s cancellation rate based on gross orders improved to 20% in the current quarter, compared to 28% in the first quarter of 2009 and 27% in the second quarter of 2008.”

My thoughts:

1. I can see the sequential improvements but am not about to jump on the bandwagon just because of them. Just about everyone was more optimistic in the second quarter than in the first. The big question is whether this momentum can be followed up. I have my doubts.

2. Are interest rates going to be low enough to draw in new buyers going forward?

3. The Street is still expecting a foundation of red ink this year and next, which isn’t all that encouraging.

4. If insiders aren’t building a position right now (get it?), why should I?

I think KB Home is a good company, and in no way am I saying its goose is cooked. But for now, this news (and the quarter) aren't impressive enough to make me want to buy the stock.

BE Aerospace (BEAV):
 This snippet about the company appeared on Bloomberg and caught my eye:

“The world’s largest maker of aircraft interiors may have its debt ratings reduced to below investment grade by Standard & Poor’s. The company’s BBB- credit rating, the lowest investment grade, was placed on CreditWatch with negative implications, S&P said.”

My take on the Florida-based company:

1. That’s certainly not great news. I’m also wondering if we may see estimates get ratcheted on downward. I’d note that the estimate for this year has already come down pretty sharply over the last 90 days.

2. What’s up with the insider sale? Yeah, BE Aerospace bulls -- I see the purchase earlier in the month, so hold the emails!

My instinct tells me to move sideways and see how this plays out a bit.

Even if estimates do end up getting knocked down, part of me thinks the stock could still be a good deal.  And longer term, I sincerely believe this company will experience a nice takeoff. My logic is simple: A bigger population equals more planes.
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