Golden Opportunity for Tech Investors

Adam Katz  Oct 16, 2008 4:15 pm

Golden Opportunity for Tech Investors
 
Forced selling creates compelling valuations.
 

 
A few things that I think are important to acknowledge, listed in no particular order:

1. The Internet/ websites have become the most effective marketing tool for most companies and their effectiveness is growing with the emergence of new management and analytical tools.

2. On a global basis, while growth of Internet use is slowing, the amount of traffic per user is increasing and this creates a greater need for bandwidth capacity, optimization, cloud computing, social networking, systems management, Internet security, processing power and storage.3. The appetite for information, on a global basis, will grow as more content becomes available, opening up opportunities for those that seek them.

4. These trends create more complexity that will be solved with more available technologies that have secular growth stories.

5. This global credit crunch has created some pause in buying IT purchases, but this is temporary.

6. The need for regulation, transparency, collaboration and communication will grow. The need for increased productivity will grow.

7. Most technology companies are debt free and cash flow and earnings positive. The concerns about their customers buying habits are overblown, as the technology stocks have in large part, led the decline in the indices.

8. Our channel checks suggest that sales cycles have gotten longer, purchases are getting delayed, and the environment has been very hard, but not impossible. Further, it seems that most of the resellers we are talking to are feeling reasonably good about the fourth quarter. While they have, by and large expressed concern about 2009, it is notable that the lack of visibility is largely priced into many multinational technology companies without any direct debt exposure.

9. The rich get richer in technology, and customers will likely want to interface with fewer vendors.

Now, with this brief framework in mind, I am looking at companies that are trading with enterprise value to free cash flow or EV/EBITDA multiples that are sub 8x, will have at least nominal growth next year, and can benefit from secular trends once the market decides where to price credit, and equities bottom. Names at the top of my list are EMC (EMC), Cicso (CSCO), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), and Symantec (SYMC).

I also believe that as larger IT vendors seek to gain share in a weak environment, they will need to acquire new technologies to out-stack the competition. This is primarily where my firm plays.

Due to the volatile nature of this environment, I am hesitant to make small and mid-cap stock recommendations in this forum, but I believe that buying well capitalized stocks that are leaders in their spaces, benefit from global secular growth trends and are trading at paltry multiples of cash flow and EBITDA, is an activity that will be well rewarded. Pointedly, I do not think there has been a ‘safer’ time to invest in technology with any kind of time horizon.
Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (5) See All Comments »
10-16-2008, 10:34 pm
Huh? Do you know what you're talking about? How is that the repricing of risk and the belief that the US is losing its financial and military dominance is a POSITIVE for the stock market? Are you for real?
Read More
10-17-2008, 8:18 am
I am afraid you have totally understated our military capability. You may not not know what to look for if you came to this opinion yourself. We do not make our military dominance visible unless it is necessary. Sleep well tonight, you're in
Read More
10-17-2008, 4:33 pm
Go to your local mall and see for yourself the impact that this crisis is having. Of course it is a self fulfilling prophecy, but does that really matter??

The average Joe has no clue, he just hears that he needs to be scared. Retailer
Read More
10-18-2008, 10:59 pm
I live in Houston, Energy Capital of the World. And, even here, where the economic impact usually lags the rest of the nation in a downtown, there is enormous palpable evidence of a large downturn. People are just not buying as much. Friends that
Read More
10-20-2008, 3:57 pm
John- The markets are a forward looking mechanism. My point is that those issues are largely priced into the markets right now. I would point out that if you evaluated the historic behavior of markets during economic slowdowns, the equity markets ha
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
F »AMZN »HIG »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert