Golden Opportunity for Tech Investors Adam Katz Oct 16, 2008 4:15 pm |
![]() |
![]() |
|
||||||||||||
|
As I said in a recent post, this is an excellent time to be an investor in technology. If I had to summarize what we're seeing in a single sentence, I would offer that we're seeing 2 phenomena occurring at the same time: First, a re-pricing of risk; second, the global financial system is finally pricing in the fact that the US is losing its financial and military dominance.
These 2 things happening simultaneously have created unprecedented volatility, which in turn has killed the performance of many investment institutions and created widespread fear and panic to the degree that the proverbial baby is being thrown out with the bathwater.
All this being said, I do believe that we will look back at the charts in several years and realize what a wonderful opportunity to invest in technology names we had in October 2008. We are now working through what the Gartner Group refers to as "The Trough of Disillusionment" within The Hype Cycle.
Since the dot-com bust, we have seen other asset bubbles emerge and therefore, while individual fortunes have been made and lost, we have not seen a true shakeout of systemic problems in the global markets until the summer of 2007.
Obviously recognition of these problems has accelerated and the kind professors of MV have done a fabulous job of keeping the readers abreast of these ongoing issues. Much of this forced selling, and fear about a lack of future growth, has hammered technology stocks to the point where I'm seeing some compelling valuations.
What I ask myself as a technology investor is:
1. Is the environment on Main Street really as bad as the market would have you believe?
2. Are some of the secular trends that we have seen with respect to IT infrastructure build out over?
In my humble opinion, the answer to both questions is a resounding "no."
These 2 things happening simultaneously have created unprecedented volatility, which in turn has killed the performance of many investment institutions and created widespread fear and panic to the degree that the proverbial baby is being thrown out with the bathwater.
All this being said, I do believe that we will look back at the charts in several years and realize what a wonderful opportunity to invest in technology names we had in October 2008. We are now working through what the Gartner Group refers to as "The Trough of Disillusionment" within The Hype Cycle.
Since the dot-com bust, we have seen other asset bubbles emerge and therefore, while individual fortunes have been made and lost, we have not seen a true shakeout of systemic problems in the global markets until the summer of 2007.
Obviously recognition of these problems has accelerated and the kind professors of MV have done a fabulous job of keeping the readers abreast of these ongoing issues. Much of this forced selling, and fear about a lack of future growth, has hammered technology stocks to the point where I'm seeing some compelling valuations.
What I ask myself as a technology investor is:
1. Is the environment on Main Street really as bad as the market would have you believe?
2. Are some of the secular trends that we have seen with respect to IT infrastructure build out over?
In my humble opinion, the answer to both questions is a resounding "no."
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange |
|
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Adam Katz is currently a partner at Marker Advisors, an independent firm providing technology research to a select group of institutional investors. Adam welcomes your comments and/or feedback at katz@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any article or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any article or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
What's Popular in the 'Ville
Minyanville Local Guides
Advertising
Business Services
Career
Cars
Computer Hardware
Construction
Education
Entertainment
Environmental
Family
Fashion
Financial Services
Food & Beverage
Franchise
Health
Holidays
Home Appliances
Home Electronics
Home Services
Industrial Goods & Services
Insurance
Internet
Legal
Miscellaneous
Nightlife
Online Database
Pets
Real Estate Resources
Retail & Consumer Services
Software
Technology
Telecommunications
Trade Shows
Travel
Weddings
World History
Business Services
Career
Cars
Computer Hardware
Construction
Education
Entertainment
Environmental
Family
Fashion
Financial Services
Food & Beverage
Franchise
Health
Holidays
Home Appliances
Home Electronics
Home Services
Industrial Goods & Services
Insurance
Internet
Legal
Miscellaneous
Nightlife
Online Database
Pets
Real Estate Resources
Retail & Consumer Services
Software
Technology
Telecommunications
Trade Shows
Travel
Weddings
World History
| add rss feed | free article alerts |










