Today's Market Buzz Todd Harrison Aug 16, 2007 4:22 pm |
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Editor's Note: The Following Buzzes appeared in real-time this afternoon and, in the interest of financial education, we wanted to share them with the Minyanship.
Duck, Duck, GOOSE! 
2:07 PM
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Negative gamma is a two-headed monster that leads to vicious moves both ways. Keep that in mind as we enjoy another lazy summer slither.
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I'm making some sales against my cheaper spate of inventory in the interest of discipline and out of respect for potential margin calls. Nothing fancy, just "trading around" and staying true to the mechanics of the swing thing.
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You know what's trading great all day? SunMicro. And yes, I have a position in the name.
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The VXO at 37 implies a 2.3% move per day for the next 30 days.
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That, coupled with NYSE curbs, futures down limit and comprehensive asset class declines are the closest we've seen to "capitulation."
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I hate that word---particularly since the DJIA remains up for the year!
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Yes, it's all relative and that must be consumed in the context of time. It might be capitulatory in the short-term but if in fact the credit bubble cracked, we've got a long way to go before the bulls can claim sweet victory.
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Bid wanted Calgon!
Grave Danger? (Is there any other kind?)

3:09 PM
No doubt, Col. Nathan R. Jessup, I also feel like I'm also eating breakfast 300 yards from 4,000 Cubans who are trained to kill me. It's been that kind of day! Still, if you can handle the truth, I'll offer these thoughts as we edge our way through another Code Red.
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That was some Snapper, eh? So you know and if you care, I sold about 50% of my long exposure into that rip (and, to be honest, I was trying to sell a bit more).
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Why? The specter of the unknown, which is sorta happening as we speak. I said to Pep when the S&P futes were a few handles from the flat-line that "You know, they can still close 'em on the lows." True Dat, which is why I'm trying to stay light and tight with alotta dry powder. And it's why we need to remain disciplined.
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I can type fast and trade even faster but I've gotta tell ya, I'm red-lining today. Between some system glitches, a sore shoulder, the minxy market, building business and actively trading, this Minyan is running... out of... steam.
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Fare ye well into the bell, friends, and please don't let the definition of an investment be a trade gone awry.
I feel like a Whopper. Turn me over, I'm done and ready. I'm afraid to look at my arse. There'll be grill marks!

3:47 PM
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SERIOUSLY!
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As the world turns and the tape squirms, I continue to pare my risk down to levels where I'll be able to sleep tonight. Or, at least to levels that won't disturb me while I sleep-eat my way through a pint of Haagen Daz.
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Will that mean I'll need corks on my forks if they rip 'em higher tomorrow? Nope. Discipline over conviction has saved me too many times throughout my career. That, along with a healthy respect for continued risk, will work just fine as post-rationalization.
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If you haven't figured it out by now, trading smaller helps when volatility gets uppity. There's no shame in that. In fact, there may well be shame in not doing that.
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We noted the dry eyes in the banks and semis out of the gate today, offering that they could lead the speed if we stopped the bleed. You see what's going on with the financials (BSC +9%) but keep an eye on those four-letter freaks. Novellus (NVLS), Maxim (MXIM), KLAC and Texan (TXN) seemingly stand out.
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Speaking of standing out, I've gotta flip lids, juggle my struggle and pay attention to my risk profile. Again, I'm taking off most all of the exposure that I added into today's abyss as a function of respect, discipline and the mere fact that my left eye and right shoulder are twitching after today's fray. No, seriously. They are.
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But I'll keep some SunMicro, which also traded fabu in the face of fugliness . Nothing crazy, but I've got it in my pocket.
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Have a great night Minyans--only one more day until our requisite two-day respite begins!
Woo Hoo!
4:14 PM
Maybe, but perhaps not. Call me old fashioned---or maybe just a bit supersticious--but I get nervous when I hear "Woo Hoo"s after what turned out to be a flat day. Particularly when they're coming from the same folks who were hiding under their desk a few hours ago. Not rubbing salt--that's not our style---I'm just sayin'. And doing so respectfully.
I sure hope they're right--nobody wins in a bear market--but I also know that the sharpest rallies occur in the context of a bear market. Sharp rallies? Like the 13% one-day run in Bear Stearns? The six percent grin by Aunt Fannie? The blink-and-ya-missed-it 3% end of day gunner in Toll Brothers? Yeah, something like that.
I also know that hope isn't a viable investment strategy, which is one of the reasons I'm playing my cards so close to the vest. Well, our vest. I always show Minyans my cards (even when they're bunk).
While unknowns loom---including tomorrow's expiration--I will note that Hoofy has something to hang his hat on. We've been discussing the potential for the double bottom in the banks as a Cliff Branch for the bulls. They held that line today and, well, it's a start.
That'll remain on our radar when we power up anew for Freaky Friday and do this whole fandango again. Aren't you looking forward to that? Man!
Have a great night, Minyans, and I'll see YOU in the ayem.
R.P.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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