There really is no comparison here, and Provenge will absolutely become first-line treatment for the 100,000+ men with this stage of prostate cancer. I see essentially no risk the FDA will not approve the drug based upon these data.

So the final 3 questions -- which is what I expect the market will start focusing on going forward -- are:

1. Can they manufacture it?

2. Will they be able to sell it?

3. Can they make money selling it?

The answer to all 3 is yes.

Manufacturing a personalized drug like Provenge is very different from what investors are used to. Each component of the manufacturing process has been around for at least a decade, if not several decades. Different does not mean difficult. I’ll go into more detail on this later, but anyone who says this drug won't be a success doesn’t know much about the process - or doesn’t have much experience with modern medical and parcel shipping operations.

I spoke to one doctor yesterday who already gets over 100 calls a year asking for Provenge. I’ve heard similar stories from other docs. This drug will be priced like other biologics, so reimbursement may be a concern. But I believe it will sell over a billion dollars at maturity in North America alone.

This drug will cost more to make than other drugs. Instead of a profit margin in the 90-95% range (or higher), Provenge will be in the 75-85% range. 75% of $1.5 billion in sales is plenty enough to generate a multi-billion dollar market cap for Dendreon.

Drama and strongly-held opinions will remain a feature of investing in Dendreon. The bears, now that they’ve been proven wrong again on the data, will start focusing on the 3 questions listed above.

I’m looking forward to that evolution in the conversation, because there's less doubt on those 3 items than there ever was on the data.



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