Dendreon: Just What the Bulls Ordered

David Miller  Apr 29, 2009 9:05 am

Dendreon: Just What the Bulls Ordered
 
Public drama cannot hide the effectiveness, profitability of Provenge.
 

The only drug approved for treating these patients is Taxotere from SanofiAventis (SNY). Sanofi was very bullish on Taxotere for prostate cancer, but it has been a sales disappointment. Sanofi has tried to launch dozens of trials to push Taxotere into earlier-stage disease, but most (if not all) failed to complete enrollment.

60% of men in one patient advocacy group’s survey indicated they would not take Taxotere. It was 48% in a different survey. Men simply don’t want the side effects as they see the added 2.9 month median benefit and 17.9% 3-year survival as not worth it.

Taxotere is notoriously difficult to give and take. It requires extensive premedication and most men spend a small fortune on drugs to reduce side effects. The “irritant” side effects (a term some oncologists use for side effects that are not life threatening) are severe.

The table below compares Taxotere with Provenge on key side effects and key benefit measures. I chose the side effects that are most concerning to doctors (top four) and those that have been proven in scientific surveys to be most irritating to men. For the benefits, I chose the three most commonly quoted benefit measures.



The side effect section is a stark illustration of how different these 2 drugs are. Taxotere has debilitating side effects that require hospitalization and can lead to death. Provenge’s side effects are almost non-existent, generally limited to flu-like symptoms for 1-3 days after each injection.

In the benefits section, you can see that Provenge is also superior. The median survival is better, the reduction in risk of death is better, and the 3-year survival is better.

The least quoted stat, but the one I think is most critical, is the bottom one. To get Taxotere’s benefits you must endure 200 days of treatment. 200 days of side effects for less than 90 days of survival benefit. For Provenge, you are treated three times over 28 days and you get 4.1 months of benefit - and a far better chance of being alive at 3 years.
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Comments (9) See All Comments »
04-29-2009, 3:59 pm
David Miller knows DNDN inside and out. Investors would be wise to listen.
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05-01-2009, 4:20 pm
As an advanced PCa patient first , a Dr (Dentist) second , and an investor third. I have been aware of Provenge for almost 4 years.
Everything in the article is right on . This is the first article that I've read that just "Nails it
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05-03-2009, 2:58 am
Thanks for the kind words about the work our firm has done on Provenge. We do indeed know it and the story well.

To the first comment... I assume that any serious investor of the type found on MV knows every company has management and ex
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06-10-2009, 2:06 pm
David Miller > We do indeed know it and the story well.

And I believe you do.
So could you please correct the very misleading "Benefits" part of the table you provided in http://www.minyanville.com/articles/SNY-DN
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07-08-2009, 2:07 am
Gave me more information than everything I have read in the last year. You people are just magnificent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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