2008: Better For Banks Than You Think

Andrew Jeffery  Jan 05, 2009 12:15 pm

2008: Better For Banks Than You Think
 
Despite credit crunch, most banks scraped by this year.
 

 

2008 certainly tried the nerves of American bankers - but other years were far worse.

University of Michigan economics professor Mark Perry notes that the 25 bank failures last year pale in comparison to banking crises past. Skeptical of comparisons with the Great Depression, Perry suggests first comparing the current situation to the S&L crisis of the 1980s, when almost 3000 banks were forced to close up shop.

As ugly as 2008 was, the banking system survived. And although many would argue (probably correctly) that it survived only because of unprecedented government intervention, survive it did. US banks are now set to benefit from the biggest economic stimulus package in a generation.



Stuffed with cash from the housing boom, years of low interest rates, and unnaturally high risk appetites, American banks entered the crisis with reserves to spare. In a year that saw the entire global financial system buckle, federal bailouts of AIG (AIG), Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), General Motors (GM) -- and the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia and Washington Mutual -- the fact that only a handful of banks actually folded is remarkable.

Those that did collapse, however, did so in spectacular fashion.

The FDIC seized IndyMac Bank last July, in what was the second largest bank failure in history. The southern California-based lender -- which was spun off from also-defunct Countrywide -- was heavily leveraged to so-called Alt-A mortgages. Alt-A occupies the uneviable spectrum of home loans just barely good enough not to be considered subprime.
In late September, Washington Mutual collapsed, and its more than $300 billion in assets were absorbed by JPMorgan (JPM). WaMu's failure was the biggest bust of all time.

Downey Savings, another southern California mortgage specialist, survived until November, when it finally sucumbed under the weight of its portfolio of option adjustable-rate mortgages, or Option ARMs. Along with Charlotte-based Wachovia (which was forced to sell itself to Wells Fargo (WFC) in October) Downey found that giving out loans without bothering to charge interest turned out to be a bad business model.

Despite dour headlines and predictions of widespread bank runs, most smaller community banks avoided the fae of their larger brethren and survived. Weakened by worsening economic conditions, banks across the board are tightening loan guidelines and hoarding cash just to stay afloat.

2009 isn't likely to be a banner year for the country's bankers - but if they can fare at least as well as they did in 2008, few would be likely to raise a fuss.


TRADE BANK STOCKS? IN 2008 IF YOU HAD BUZZ & BANTER YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN WELL AHEAD OF THE COLLAPSE.  GET REAL-TIME INSIGHT & IDEAS IN 2009.
Rate this article: (0 Votes)
Comments (3) See All Comments »
01-05-2009, 12:36 pm
Why do I get a different feeling that most of the major banks failed in my neighborhood? Everyone is comparing the number of banks that failed. What about the percentage of assets or market cap represented by the failing banks? With banks so conce
Read More
01-05-2009, 2:31 pm

First, if banks are artificially kept from 'failing' because of government intervention doesn't that beg the question?

Second, why don't we wait and see where this PROCESS ends up before we start celebratin
Read More
01-05-2009, 2:42 pm
Hi David,

The goal of my piece was two-fold, the first was to point out that compared to historical banking crashes, the banking system has held up rather well if you measure it by actual failures. The government prevented many banks fro
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



Andrew Jeffery is an Editor at Minyanville Publishing & Multimedia, LLC.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any article or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Markets

our professors

rss article alert