Ratings Agencies as Dr. Kevorkian Jeff Macke Oct 10, 2008 9:35 am |
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In my opinion, until we suspend the credit agencies, every act of intervention is throwing good money after bad. We are trying to fix sub-prime loans while GM gets put out of business by a nameless analyst at a group that helped cause the original debt pricing crisis in the first place.
The global coordination of governments itself means nothing relative to the power of the agencies. The idea of marking to market, "transparency", is akin to demanding financials to stick their own heads in a guillotine. If any bank "marks to market" it's likely to be worse than the current mark. The balance sheet impact will be a bright light for the credit agency moths to initiate downgrades. Not all the cash injections in the world will stop the death spiral. You need to get the handgun out of the child's hand. I believe you need to suspend the ratings agencies.
If we don't suspend the agencies, we can't go transparent. If we don't go transparent, nothing the Feds of the world coordinate matters in the least. It's a spit in the ocean.
Until 3pm yesterday, it was hard to find a reason to get long. After the GM and Alcoa downgrades, it became clear to me that the wisest course of action was selling anything at any price. The problem has already gone from sub-prime to GM. It's not a question of Wall Street vs. Main Street. In my opinion, it's a matter of the largest employers in America going bankrupt at once. It's a matter of the day-day operations of the country, if not the entire world, coming to a halt.
It's this simple: until the ratings agencies are suspended on a global basis you can't own any stock at any price. The momentum is down. Valuation is impossible and pointless. There is no bullish argument and it may be too late to make one, even if we do get the handgun away from the kid. But, until B-quality analysts lose the right to declare the AIG, General Motors and Alcoa's of the world dead, all stocks to me are a sell.
To own stocks now, I believe, is to bet the governments of the world aren't too busy grilling Richard Fuld to find the real problem. There's little reason for optimism on that front to date.
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