Ratings Agencies as Dr. Kevorkian

Jeff Macke  Oct 10, 2008 9:35 am

Ratings Agencies as Dr. Kevorkian
 
Too much power with too little understanding.
 

 
Don't believe me? I refer you back to yesterday's action. Still not convinced? I remind you that AIG was likely to die anyway, but it was a 14.5 billion capital call resulting from a credit downgrade that finished them off.

In my opinion, until we suspend the credit agencies, every act of intervention is throwing good money after bad. We are trying to fix sub-prime loans while GM gets put out of business by a nameless analyst at a group that helped cause the original debt pricing crisis in the first place.

The global coordination of governments itself means nothing relative to the power of the agencies. The idea of marking to market, "transparency", is akin to demanding financials to stick their own heads in a guillotine. If any bank "marks to market" it's likely to be worse than the current mark. The balance sheet impact will be a bright light for the credit agency moths to initiate downgrades. Not all the cash injections in the world will stop the death spiral. You need to get the handgun out of the child's hand. I believe you need to suspend the ratings agencies.

If we don't suspend the agencies, we can't go transparent. If we don't go transparent, nothing the Feds of the world coordinate matters in the least. It's a spit in the ocean.

Until 3pm yesterday, it was hard to find a reason to get long. After the GM and Alcoa downgrades, it became clear to me that the wisest course of action was selling anything at any price. The problem has already gone from sub-prime to GM. It's not a question of Wall Street vs. Main Street. In my opinion, it's a matter of the largest employers in America going bankrupt at once. It's a matter of the day-day operations of the country, if not the entire world, coming to a halt.

It's this simple: until the ratings agencies are suspended on a global basis you can't own any stock at any price. The momentum is down. Valuation is impossible and pointless. There is no bullish argument and it may be too late to make one, even if we do get the handgun away from the kid. But, until B-quality analysts lose the right to declare the AIG, General Motors and Alcoa's of the world dead, all stocks to me are a sell.

To own stocks now, I believe, is to bet the governments of the world aren't too busy grilling Richard Fuld to find the real problem. There's little reason for optimism on that front to date.
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Comments (14) See All Comments »
10-13-2008, 2:31 pm
Thats right Macke...Put all the rating agencies out of business and add tens of thousands of people to the unemployment line just because you have a problem with some of their ratings. Ratings have been around for over 100 years...I think if it was a
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10-13-2008, 2:43 pm
How can you, in a capitalist market, claim a company such as Moody's should cease to exist? Exactly what rules are being broken here? If the argument is that the system is flawed then that is a matter out of the hands of the specific rating age
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10-13-2008, 3:46 pm
Let's review:

Bear is gone.

Lehman is gone and Richard Fuld is getting humiliated on television.

Morgan Stanley is more or less a Japanese firm.

The rating's agencies have been discredit
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10-13-2008, 4:41 pm
That's right Macke...RA's provide opinions on the creditworthiness of corporations. Just like you provide opinions on your tv show that make you so much "smarter" and more "famous" than RA analysts. The only differ
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10-13-2008, 9:18 pm
If I was paid by the companies I recommended or panned or, as in the case of the RA's, had a side business of helping them "Structure" themselves in ways that would encourage me to call them buys on the program then, yes, the networ
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