Five Reasons to Listen to George Soros

Keith Fitz-Gerald  Jul 01, 2009 11:30 am

Five Reasons to Listen to George Soros
 
And why interpreting his position as bullish is almost certainly a mistake.
 

Billionaire investor George Soros thinks the worst of the global financial crisis is behind us.

In a June 20 interview with Polish television, the Hungarian-born Soros acknowledged that this has been the most serious crisis he’s seen in his lifetime, but said that: “Definitely, the worst is behind us.”

For those who like to interpret “Soros-speak,” that’s as powerful a sign as any that Soros -- one of the world’s most successful investors -- is “going long.”

But is he wrong?

On the one hand, the World Bank's busy roiling the markets with recently updated figures that project a 2.9% decline in global economic activity this year. Then there are the signs that the green shoots (how I’ve come to detest that term) may be more like weeds. Debt's devastating the developed world, and the once-mighty G-7 looks more like a G-1 every day.

On the other hand, I wouldn’t bet against him. When it comes to financial influence and acumen, Soros is about as powerful and prescient as they come. He’s made billions over the years speculating on things that others simply couldn’t see -- or, more often, didn’t want to see. He’s legendary for making big bets on market timing, even if, by his own admission, he isn't always right.

For the millions of investors tempted to interpret Soros’ comments as bullish, I urge caution. In fact, this advice applies to any comments that might be made by such investment legends as Warren Buffett, or even Soros’ former investment partner, noted author and commentator Jim Rogers.

I preach caution for 3 reasons:

1. Despite the fact that each of these men is fabulously successful, the typical retail investor has no idea how much money they’re betting on the upside, or what percentage of their wealth is involved in any publicized position.

2. It’s not clear what -- if any -- protective stops are being used, so you don’t know whether the positions they’ve taken represent core portfolio holdings or speculative trades.

3. These revelations -- disclosures, really -- are usually made after the fact, which means that investors who may want to tag along for the ride are put in the risky position of having to make “me too” investments.
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Comments (11) See All Comments »
07-01-2009, 7:14 pm
still to come is beyond the imaginings of most..." I'd agree with, Lee! That the misery to come can't be imagined by most, so as to cut it as short as possible, is a GOOD thing--I'd disagree. I believe that the economic mess
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07-01-2009, 7:58 pm
Joan, stop watching so much fox noise and maybe you can realize how silly your Soros-socialist-central banking-bigger government canard is. Soros made his money by correctly betting on actions by the "central banks" and those same banks
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07-01-2009, 8:16 pm
Funny. I agree with both of you...or disagree with both.
I think it's because I don't separate the government from banks and business. They are one and the same now, and mostly have always been part of the corporate mindset since th
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07-01-2009, 8:23 pm
I don't know how to tell the difference anymore, do you?
"For those who like to interpret âSoros-speak,â that's as powerful a sign as any that Soros -- one of the world's most successful investors -- is &acir
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07-01-2009, 11:04 pm
These are people who simply know how to manipulate the system the best. They take wealth away from those who produce it while perpetuating the notion that you can truly have something for nothing.

This "something for nothing"
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