Bailout Treats Symptoms, Not Disease

Andrew Jeffery  Sep 29, 2008 9:15 am

Bailout Treats Symptoms, Not Disease
 
Overpriced homes at root of the problem.
 

 
Back in what seems like ancient history, when home prices only went up, banks weren’t too concerned with defaults, since homeowners could almost always sell themselves out of a problem. Foreclosures stayed low because the liquid, appreciating housing market bailed out troubled homeowners on its own. That's part of the reason the industry is so ill-equipped to handle the scope of the current problem: it never had to before.

But now, with so many borrowers underwater -- owing more on their house than it's worth -- defaults result in not only eventual liquidation of the property, but profound distress in the homeowner’s life and real losses for investors. Furthermore, delinquent borrowers are less inclined to pay for upkeep or security, and many foreclosed homes are seriously damaged by the time a bank is able to take possession of it.

Being underwater is debilitating. To sell, not only does a homeowner have to pay a Realtor 6% whether he gets a raw deal or not, but he has to pay the bank the difference between where his home sells and the outstanding balance of his loan.

For many who have seen the value of their homes fall hundreds of thousands of dollars, this is an impossibility. Most homeowners, once they’re upside down, just want to stay in their homes.

A more effective plan to curb foreclosures would require an independent reviewer to evaluate each delinquent mortgage, determine the borrower’s ability to pay going forward and the amount, if any, of negative equity that needs to be destroyed to bring the loan amount back under the home’s value.

Since the notion that buying Wall Street’s toxic assets will result in windfall profits is a willfully distributed fallacy aimed at getting the public on board for the bailout, Taxpayers would be well-served dumping money into a blender that’s at least in their own backyard.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently proposed a similar plan, where the government will buy delinquent mortgages from banks for the outstanding balance of the loan. The home is then rented to the existing tenant or a new one and managed by a local housing association.

The government would absorb the difference between the loan amount and the resale value, which would hasten increase sales activity, clearing out the glut of homes listed too high for the simple reason that the owner can't afford to sell at a lower price.

This type of personalized bailout, unfortunately, reeks of moral hazard. Many individuals who made bad financial decisions will get to keep their homes, albeit without actual ownership. But the current socialization of our free markets is simply moral hazard be design, so if Congress is so hell-bent on bailing out Wall Street, why not share the spoils with Main Street.

If Congress wants this bailout to help the American people and keep the financial system in tact, a sizable portion of the funds should be directed at fixing the asset that’s at the center of this turmoil: the residential property.

Home prices need to come down further. They will come down further. It’s only a matter of time. We can either let home prices bleed down, slowly eroding the value of the securities they support and violently uprooting families, or the government can plug the hole.

Washington Mutual (WM) is already off the field, as JP Morgan (JPM) continues to play widowmaker for the financial system. Wachovia (WB) isn't likely to remain independent for long. The sooner the rebuilding process begins, the better.

This crisis, and the resulting ebb and flow of what remains of the free market has already tipped the scales, started us sliding down a path of deflation in everything from stock prices, to cereal boxes, soda bottles, not to mention homes.

This is a good development. The hardest lesson Americans will learn from this crisis, should learn from this crisis, is that sometimes it’s necessary to live within our means. There is virtue in simplicity. More is not always better. Bigger is not always better. Sometimes, amazingly enough, less is often better.

This progress is the only true way we'll make it out of this mess.
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Comments (7) See All Comments »
09-29-2008, 12:20 pm
As reality sets in for homeowners in over their heads and about to lose their homes rather then make them homeless why not find a home in an area close to their work thats more affordable and do an exchange. A difficult process but at least it would
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09-29-2008, 2:05 pm
Hi Caleb,

You're right, on a larger scale overleverage is definitely the most widespread disease in our financial system. I do believe, however, that as long as we ignore this negative equity problem, the housing market will take y
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09-29-2008, 2:41 pm
The true overleverage is consumption. A species cannot perpetually grow in number and consumption within a closed ecological system.
The simple truth is, we don't need all of these people or the stuff they have in order for our species t
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09-30-2008, 8:28 am
You hit the nail on the head. Unfortunately any serious policy response is very unlikely.

When I talk to "underwater" home owners they all hope against hope that "things" will return to "normal" and t
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09-30-2008, 1:06 pm
.. Overleverage and overpriced homes and failing institutions and junk mortgage-backed securities and unneeded wars and allowing 9/11 are ALL just SYMPTOMS of a MISTAKE made way back in 2000 when Bush Jr. and Cronies were annoited president...

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