“When illusion spin her net, I'm never where I want to be.
And liberty she pirouette, when I think that I am free.”
--Peter Gabriel

Chasing Liberty. It’s a fantastic concept at face value.

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If only…

• Break the bearish credit bets made by global macro funds by squeezing stocks higher so Corporate America can issue secondary offerings. That will dilute equities but offer a respite in the credit markets. This is the primary objective of the enforcement of the short-tick rule, explained here and here, and chatter in the marketplace—reported today, first discussed on MV Friday—is that the SEC might extend this to all equities.
  
  
• Break crude, with an eye towards “par” by November. While empirical evidence shows little if any historical relationship between the price of oil and equities—the 10-year correlation between crude and airlines is negative .246 (very mild)—psychology surrounding lower oil could conceivably shift sentiment. Look for Texas Tea to continue its 15% pullback this month and mysteriously migrate towards $100 in the months ahead.

• So KKR wants to be a public company, eh? That’s bullish, right? Maybe—as we learned with Fortress Investment Group (FIG) and Blackstone (BX), these guys don’t get paid the big bucks for nothing.
  
  
• Interesting column in the Sunday NYT Business section on Hammering Hank Paulson. No, big dog, I don’t have any answers, per se, but I’ll remind you that as a U.S. citizen, it’s not only my right to question our leadership, it’s my obligation to do so.
  
  
• Rest in peace Professor Randy Pausch.
  
  
• There's no shame in admitting that it's hard Minyans. There's only shame in ignoring that it's hard.
  
  
• I’m not involved in MasterCard (MA) or Visa (V) but I have a high degree of confidence both will get dinged before the credit crisis works through the rest of the phases. It’s not a default play—it’s a processing play. Women be shopping, and they always will, they’ll just be shopping less.
  
  
• Is DJ Jazzy Jeff the modern day urban equivalent of Art Garfunkel?
  
  
• In a normal world, I would prolly have pressed Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) on Friday’s S&P news. While the stocks will likely be nationalized in time, I don't feel like trading against Hank Paulson. His pockets are much deeper than mine, which is sorta weird because his pockets are mine.
  
  
• Cash America (CSH), the pawn shop chain, mentioned on its earnings call that refined gold sales were up 60% year over year. That, coupled with the uptick in people prematurely tapping into their 401(k)’s, is a manifestation of the credit crunch that’s flying beneath the radar.
  
  
• If you've been bullish and bearish and bullish and bearish and bullish and bearish today, do yourself a favor and take a deep breath. Death by 1000 paper cuts is no way to go through life, son.
  
  
• And look on the bright side--it's summer time!

R.P.