Random Thoughts: Bovine Redemption or Market Redemptions? Todd Harrison Jul 16, 2008 1:00 pm |
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Since last spring, when Minyanville mapped the early stages of contagion, government officials assured us that the dominoes of the debt crisis would be contained.
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While anecdotal—and with a conscious nod that 1) the sharpest sell-offs occur during oversold conditions and 2) this mess will take many years to fully unfold, will his admission of angst serve as a contrarian data point?
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Or did Wells Fargo (WFC)—a well-run bank at the center of the California mortgage mess—stem the bank bloodletting with this morning's "any whiff of good news in the financials will be greeted with open arms" earnings?
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Holy Cow, did anyone else stay up to watch that CLASSIC 15-inning all-star game at Yankee Stadium last night? I mean, honestly, who needs sleep?
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Do as I say, not as I do? According to Trimtabs, only seven new stock buybacks totaling $2.9 billion were announced from Friday through Tuesday, which were the first three days of earnings season. If buybacks don't bounce back later this week, they'll be below $10 billion for ten consecutive weeks for the first time since mid-2005.
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Meanwhile, according to Dealogic, new offerings could easily hit $18 billion this week, the third-highest amount this year.
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Is this he Matador City National Anthem into the 3 pm “I wonder if we see redemptions today” window?

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I'm not sure I've ever seen a more orderly stair-step in a trading vehicle than what currently exists in crude. A quick glance at Texas Tea paints a very defined technical picture. $140 was support and, once broken, morphed into resistance. $130 is current support--Mr. Valentine has set the price--with $120 looming large. Under that? $120, $110 and $100.

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As discussed on Monday's Buzz, I added USO puts into the close slightly in and around $145. I understand that bulls and bears make money--and bacon gets shaken--but I'm still there. Discipline likely dictates peeling a bit off so keep that in mind as the newfound support approaches.
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Red beans in the green sea? Wal-Mart (WMT), which trades funky cold medina.
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In the mojo shift department, I replaced the "signed by the entire 1994 Stanley Cup winning NY Rangers team" Adam Graves jersey with a signed Joe Torre game jersey in one of my lucite cases in my office. Whatever it takes, right?
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At the risk of a complete mush--and conscious that Wachovia (WB) continues to trade, uh, not as well as it should, this is an update from yesterday morning's laundry list. While I'm still there on the long side (the faux bull costume, two legs), I've made some token sales just in case. Discipline is like a diet--you can trip, but you can't fall.
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As always, I hope this finds you swell. Pork Chops and Apple Sauce. Swell.
R.P.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any article or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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