Buying Lower Lows, Selling Lower Highs Adam Katz Jan 23, 2009 8:30 am |
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To add insult to injury: In the tech sector, Microsoft (MSFT) dropped their pre-market bomb, forcing everyone again to reassess their risk as cheap stocks keep getting cheaper.
Okay, enough of the despair. Let's be respectful of the other side of the trade, and, in doing so, I'd like to share some feedback I consider to be relevant:
1. Hedge funds are largely looking to get fourth-quarter earnings reports, and, more importantly, first-quarter and fiscal-year 2009 guidance out of the way before stepping in and bidding on some discounted names. They understand that a) guidance will be lowered, b) numbers will get taken down and c) downgrades will follow. That's largely being viewed as the buyable pain point.
2. Mutual funds are more concerned about not outperforming their benchmarks if the market closes higher for 2009, than they are about losing money in 2009 coming off dismal losses in 2008.
3. The short side has been too easy. The broad consensus: Little is inspiring people to go out and buy stocks.
4. Basing, short-covering, dull markets and performance anxiety together create the perfect cocktail to fuel fast, violent and sharp bear-market rallies.
I, for one, am convinced that people will get paid for buying over-extended lower lows and then selling lower highs; in other words, you aren't being paid for patience in this market. But you can get paid for keeping your feet moving. This is what creates maximum frustration as the last few weak hands get shaken out of the market. It also creates a wonderful trading environment.
So with this, let's plan our trades and trade our plans. Discipline over conviction.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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