The Law of Small Numbers

Bennet Sedacca  Dec 01, 2008 11:30 am

The Law of Small Numbers
 
Few trading opportunities in what remains a structural bear market.
 

 

“Money’s only important if you don’t have any.”
Sting

Money, get away.
Get a good job with good pay and you’re okay.


Money, it’s a gas.
Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.
New car, caviar, four star daydream,
Think I’ll buy me a football team
"Money," Pink Floyd

The first key to making money in the markets is not to lose money - or at least to keep your losses to a minimum when you make a poor decision. There are many ways to express this rather simple concept: “Buy when you can, not when you have to”; or “Buy low/sell high.”

While I have not been the most bullish guy on Earth for a few years, there was a method to the madness: To be able to buy when others have lost much of their capital.

While investing seems complicated, the arithmetic is pretty easy. If you lose 50% in an investment, you must double your money to get back to break-even. Clearly, doubling one’s money in nearly any investment is not an easy proposition. But when prices fall far enough (like the recent experience with the S&P 500 in the July 2007-November 2008 period - a 50% decline), it's those who have their capital mostly intact that can pounce at low levels to take advantage of what I like to call "the law of small numbers."

Consider this: Even after the recent 20% move up in the S&P 500, the market remains down nearly 40% year-to-date. To the investor that believed the “buy and hold” mantra of the conventional crowd, the move from 740 back up to 890 in the S&P 500 was nothing more than a move from being down 50% to being down 40% - hardly awe-inspiring.

While I have made it very clear that my initial target in the S&P was 750 (I did buy aggressively in the 740-770 vicinity, as I mentioned in a couple of alerts last week), I already sold that position as of this past Friday.

The gains in some stocks and sectors from a percentage standpoint were staggering:
 

  • UYG (200% ETF on financial sector) moved from 3.30 to 6.20, up over 80 % in a week, but still down more than 90% from last year”s highs.


    Click to enlarge


  • BKX (KBW Bank Index) moved from nearly 120 to 33, or approximately 72% from last year”s highs then bounced 50% in a week but remains more than 60% below its high.


    Click to enlarge
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Comments (12) See All Comments »
12-02-2008, 11:04 am
The auto industry isn't failing because people can't buy cars. It's failing because people don't want the cars they make, and they pay far too much to make cars that nobody wants.

Isn't it interesting that
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12-02-2008, 3:09 pm
Our debt is whatever number the government chooses to tell us,...there are many items that are off budget and not reported. The Fed has pledged almost $7 trillion to get credit "unfrozen",where is that accounted for?
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12-02-2008, 9:39 pm
The difference between foreign car companies building cars and American car companies basically comes down to benefit costs. GM is a health insurance company that sells cars. Ford is a fire insurance company that sells service contracts. Chrysler is
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12-03-2008, 1:45 pm
There is some truth to that. Foreign car companies do have a slight advantage in that respect....except when they are building cars here in the US. I sincerely doubt that Japan is footing the bill for US workers who have retired here.


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12-03-2008, 1:49 pm
Promising whatever is needed, as opposed to actually delivering it, are two different things.

If I co-sign a loan for my son, assuring the bank that the money will be paid, it gives them the confidence to offer the loan. No money actual
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