New Jobs Magically Vanish Mr Practical Jul 03, 2008 10:10 am |
![]() |
![]() |
|
||||||||||||
|
The birth-death "adjustment" added 177,000 jobs to the latest report, which put the total adjustment for the year at 600,000 new jobs - or so the government claims.
Of course, they arrived at this number through a completely flawed methodology: At the end of the year, these numbers will quietly be backed out - just as they were last year. Even given these manufactured numbers, employment decline is consistent with recession.
The government only has statistics for jobs that are lost by small businesses; they get this information from employment insurance numbers, etc. They have no information about how many jobs are created. Thus, they make it up.
They just assume that for every job lost, there's one added - and then they add that back to the jobs number.
This logic is flawed, to say the least.
In a recession, does it make sense that jobs would be created at the same rate at which they're lost? Of course not. But that's how government bureaucrats think and act - just one reason we're in so much trouble.
It's not reality, but manipulation, pure and simple. If you recall, the government very quietly acknowledged that all those birth/death assumptions were false at the end of last year. No one seemed to notice this, of course.
But presto! Over a million jobs they claimed were created vanished into thin air.
Of course, they arrived at this number through a completely flawed methodology: At the end of the year, these numbers will quietly be backed out - just as they were last year. Even given these manufactured numbers, employment decline is consistent with recession.
The government only has statistics for jobs that are lost by small businesses; they get this information from employment insurance numbers, etc. They have no information about how many jobs are created. Thus, they make it up.
They just assume that for every job lost, there's one added - and then they add that back to the jobs number.
This logic is flawed, to say the least.
In a recession, does it make sense that jobs would be created at the same rate at which they're lost? Of course not. But that's how government bureaucrats think and act - just one reason we're in so much trouble.
It's not reality, but manipulation, pure and simple. If you recall, the government very quietly acknowledged that all those birth/death assumptions were false at the end of last year. No one seemed to notice this, of course.
But presto! Over a million jobs they claimed were created vanished into thin air.
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange |
|
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any article or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
What's Popular in the 'Ville
Minyanville Local Guides
Advertising
Business Services
Career
Cars
Computer Hardware
Construction
Education
Entertainment
Environmental
Family
Fashion
Financial Services
Food & Beverage
Franchise
Health
Holidays
Home Appliances
Home Electronics
Home Services
Industrial Goods & Services
Insurance
Internet
Legal
Miscellaneous
Nightlife
Online Database
Pets
Real Estate Resources
Retail & Consumer Services
Software
Technology
Telecommunications
Trade Shows
Travel
Weddings
World History
Business Services
Career
Cars
Computer Hardware
Construction
Education
Entertainment
Environmental
Family
Fashion
Financial Services
Food & Beverage
Franchise
Health
Holidays
Home Appliances
Home Electronics
Home Services
Industrial Goods & Services
Insurance
Internet
Legal
Miscellaneous
Nightlife
Online Database
Pets
Real Estate Resources
Retail & Consumer Services
Software
Technology
Telecommunications
Trade Shows
Travel
Weddings
World History
| add rss feed | free article alerts |









