Ratings Agencies Should Be Downgraded

Jeff Macke  Sep 18, 2008 2:15 pm

Ratings Agencies Should Be Downgraded
 
They helped cause crisis. Now they're helping it continue.
 

 
Everyone involved is, to some extent, guilty of creating this crisis. There will be ample time to sort the players out later. The market can, and always has, repriced itself, punished the most foolish and meted out free-market justice.

What it can’t withstand, and what makes every day a good day to sell financials, is the ongoing credence given to debt ratings groups. We don’t need them now. The credit market is frozen to the point that we don’t need Moody’s et al. to rate new issues. The stresses on the banking system are obvious. We don’t need Moody’s or Standard & Poor's to point that out for us.

What we need to do is stop the ratings agencies from throwing napalm on the Street's dirty paper. Leave the shorts alone. Figure out the hedge funds later. Forget trying to stop “rumor mongering.” Simply muzzle Moody’s, Standard & Poor's and Fitch. Suspend their operations. They’ve lost the right to be part of this system. They will, of course, need to eventually be replaced and/ or reconfigured. Someone has to value the paper. But not these guys and not now.

Take the flame-thrower out of the rating’s agencies hands and the prospect of an inorganic wipeout like AIG is out of the equation. Going to zero becomes a less likely prospect. The market will find a price for the last financials standing and start rebuilding the world.

Until the Federal conversation moves from blaming shorts and gossip for Wall Street’s woes and starts centering around the amount of power being given to the likes of S&P the panic will continue to build, financial stocks will be great selling candidates and the underlying problems will only get worse.

I shorted the market on today’s open, via a long position in the SDS (an “ultra bearish” ETF). The market was being bought on “hope” that the bailout scheme du jour would “work”. Someday the market will rally; but not until someone explains to the folks in DC the real reason financial stocks are untouchable.

Here’s a hint: It’s not because of negative gossip.
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Comments (14) See All Comments »
09-19-2008, 1:04 am
Jeff,

I agree with on all points but would like to draw attention to the LTCM event.

In hopes of creating a solution to the LTCM blowup the Fed stepped out of it's purview to regulate inflation through subtle manipulat
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09-19-2008, 1:54 am
"The argument that “the shorts†are behind the drops in bank stocks is simply ludicrous. The stocks are falling because of a genuine unwinding of improperly priced risk" - Jeff Macke

Here !@#$ing HERE!

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09-19-2008, 9:28 am
Thanks for all the nice thoughts, folks. Obviously, the government opted for a slightly less nuanced approach to the problem. In short, the US Government dropped dumptrucks and declared negativity illegal.

Rule #1 of trading is "
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09-19-2008, 2:11 pm
CDS prices are Mr. Market's estimate of the risk of default -- much better than corruption-prone ratings by the agencies.

Kill the ratings agencies and build a public CDS market.

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09-19-2008, 3:16 pm
Hello Jeff-

I enjoy your blog and your television presence. Thank you for all that you do.

I have no clue what to do, now that the strategies I crafted so carefully are lying at my feet in pathetic, twisted wrecks.
<
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