Random Thoughts: Crude Psychology vs. Structural Reality Todd Harrison Jun 19, 2008 12:50 pm |
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Today's fray is a snapshot of the metric tug-o-war: structural vs. psychology. Minyans know that one of my ingredients for meltage is lower—not higher—crude. The unknown in the equation is whether investors buy equities first, as they're conditioned (by the media) to believe in the inverse correlation.
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Think of the relationship between the financials and S&P as a giant wishbone. The stress is building—if they can't catch a hard Snapper, it'll be time to put the women and children to bed.
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I giggled at the Gods this morning about how Mercury Retrograde passed and sure 'nuff, the 'Ville suffered a short brown-out. I should know better.
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Yesterday we spoke about the Google (GOOG) gaps—one in the short-term and a meatier one, if and when, between $450 and Five-quarta. As of today's drop, we've filled the first vacuum and I peeled out of my puts as a function of discipline.
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Make it stop! I've had this song in my head for the last few days and I can't shake it!

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Trade to win. Never trade "not to lose."
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So Citi (C) warns that consumer credit is a challenge. Shocker, eh?
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I've been watching Pulte Homes (PHM) since if first traded dry on yesterday's opening. I'm not chasing it but, so it’s said, I like the idea of trading beaten down sectors vs. extended sectors on a pairs.
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Jeezums, just last month, JP Morgan (JPM) was testing a 52-week high. Now, the stock is approaching meaningful support at $36.
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I sure wish the camera added 100 hair follicles rather than ten pounds.
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If you're getting bullish on upticks and bearish on downticks, take a step back and a deep
breath. The ability not to trade is often as powerful as trading ability. -
First, we had the moral hazard debate. Now, we've got phase two through proposed legislation. Note to Joe Lieberman: Trying to shift the natural balance of the free markets is akin to giving a drunk another drink with hopes he doesn't sober up.
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Smile. It could be worse and for alotta folks, it is.
R.P.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
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