One of the strategies my firm has been employing could then best be described as “inliers.” If bulls and bears are both pressing their bets, we'd like to deal cards to each group, especially when they become more convinced. We've been sellers of volatility, and continue to be. As an example, we might take half a position in a stock and sell a put below the market for the other half.

My firm chooses to use zero leverage, so we hold cash against the put sold. At the same time, we sell a call above the market against the shares we originally purchased. Again using no leverage, our call is also covered.

We're happy to acquire our full position if we're put the shares lower. We're happy to be called away higher. But instead of thinking directionally -- as all of the confusing data above has led investors in a variety of ways to do -- my firm is preparing for a third possibility, which seems the most un-crowded of all: What if not much happens, for a change?

You're told volatility has collapsed. If you’ve made it this far, you are automatically downgrading every report of ‘soaring’ or ‘collapsing’ or anything bird related.

Here's the widely reported VIX to measure the S&P’s volatility. It looks a lot different if you take out the soaring levels last year and the collapse this year. I smoothed that into the straight line you see at the end to show where we are today. I still used all of that data to come up with the average since 1994, which is 20.65.

Volatility prices are not low at all, in fact they are close to 50% higher than average. Personally I don't care much about the VIX to begin with, because we don't sell overall market options, we select individual equities where volatility will always be rising and falling separately.

I think there is a better than average chance that one prediction you do not often hear comes true -- that the most bullish and bearish among us can both be wrong. In that case and simple example above, both puts and calls we sell can expire worthless, the option writer pocketing both premiums.

The mother of all inliers hides from most in plain sight. Stocks spend more time doing nothing than you're likely ever to hear from people hired to do something with them.

Like the secret he found to becoming a great Canadian hockey player (be born in the right month), Gladwell might point out that successful investing over the last 100 years came down to an account being born in one of only 3 periods.

Out of greed, fear, frustration, or all three - Bulls and Bears might be overpaying for the chance of outliers, when the odds favor Inliers.