The question on bulls' and bears' minds is whether we have come too far to fast. Again let’s climb onto an un-crowded perch to use a wider lens. The S&P 500 broke more than this well reported 200-day Moving Average last week. It also broke all other records in history, with the exception of only one, for how long we spent underneath that 200-day moving average: 523 days.

So how are both camps playing it? Here’s that fascinating agreement I promised.



I overlaid the AAII Bullish and Bearish Sentiment readings. Naturally, throughout time one is falling when the other is rising. Many seasoned investors like to draw conclusions around which side of the boat is getting too crowded and then sell that consensus.

I drew these green lines instead, showing something remarkable: Bullish and Bearish sentiment have been rising together. Each group now conditioned to look for outlying swans to the upside and downside. Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell didn't spend 28 weeks atop the New York Times bestseller list by accident.