I know more consumers who will need a fixed mortgage this year than will trade long bond futures, so what matters more -- that chart above or this one below? That “soaring” looks a lot different in the context of the past 4 decades.


Widen the lens even more, and you'll find this grounded fact. Using the benchmark 10-year note (remember, they stopped selling the 30-year for a while, since everybody is a trader now) you'll find that since 1962 yields have been higher than they are now only about 99% of the time.

So is something else going on here, to explain why small ticks in short times somehow get described as parabolic moves? If you dismiss that flimsy question (perhaps correctly), I wonder if a major clue has not been discarded, that might help solve the following most profitable stock market riddle of all time.

What can it do that will surprise the most number of people? The always un-crowded possibility follows in a moment. It may or may not be the right answer but I think the odds are priced very nicely. One more hint: With blinds filled by Swan Hunters, I can think of only one move that would surprise them. There's one bird’s wings that are more difficult to see -- a hummingbird -- which (hint) also happens to be the only bird capable of flying forward and backward.