Monday Morning Quarterback: Will Banks Bounce into 3Q?-Minyanville

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Monday Morning Quarterback: Will Banks Bounce into 3Q?

Todd Harrison Jun 30, 2008 8:30 am

Monday Morning Quarterback: Will Banks Bounce into 3Q?


		It seems no one wants to hold financials.

“Even a broken clock is right twice a day.”

As we tie a bow on the worst June swoon since the Great Depression, a normally jubilant July is limping to the forefront of our collective psyche.

Fireworks are on tap, but what form will they take?

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Will we celebrate the traditional fires in the sky that light up lower Manhattan?

Or will a more somber ceremony precede that on the corner of Wall and Broad?

There are several things we “know.”

First, markets move in three phases—denial, migration and panic. While hopeful folks whispered “capitulation” in hushed tones on Friday, it’s tough to make that case at VXO 25, less than half the level that previous fear fulcrums.

There is history. Since 1960, the average bear market has lasted 14 months and took stocks 31% lower, on average, before we bottomed. Considering that we’ve yet to enter “official” bear territory for many of the mainstay averages, patience seems prudent.

Finally, there’s social mood and risk appetite, which we’ve spoken about incessantly over the last few years. Given the historical highlight above, it’s again worth nothing that the stock market crash didn’t cause the Great Depression, the Great Depression caused the stock market to crash.

Debbie Dour you say?

Risk management over reward chasing, I’ll counter, with a conscious nod that the most vicious rallies occur in the den of a bear.

It remains my view that we’re in the early innings of the deleveraging process that will take five years, for starters, to flush its way through the system.

The good news—and yes, there is some—is that once this occurs and debt is destroyed, the foundational elements of a legitimate and sustainable economic expansion will be in place.

It’ll likely be lean from here to there but we’ll get through it together.

We are, after all, Minyans.

Random Thoughts

I was talking with “my brother” over the weekend—my big brother in the business, not my blood brother in Baltimore—about the potential for a bank bounce after funds puke them from their sheets. Nobody really wants to “show” bank holdings, which likely contributed to the decline and could usher in some snappage for a trade.
Potential vehicles? I’m long some Wachovia (WB) October 17.5 calls (against my remaining American Express (AXP) July 40 puts).
For those of you looking at JP Morgan (JPM), I would remind you that past support ($36) is current resistance.
Why does this matter? Come on Yo, you’re a Minyan—you should know this.
I should be so lucky! This is your friendly Minyanville reminder that it’ll be thin and thinner this week in front of the holiday. That’s a recipe for smaller size and tighter risk parameters.
Thinking of a master plan? Dude, you're not alone. With the DJIA down almost 1000 points since we scribed our recipe for a market melt, it's crunch time in the City of Critters. Here are five levels I've watching as we find our way:
- BKX 60: Minyans know this level all too well.
- Google (GOOG) $525: Top end of the gap, which works to $450.
- Crude $140: Past support is future resistance.
- S&P 1275: The March lows on a closing basis.
- China 3000: The level of lore into the Olympics.
Thanks Scoop! After filming seven videos, writing three long form columns, X Buzzes and scheduling one radio interview on Friday, I’m officially a media trollop! For those who wanna sniff some topics, here they are:

Answers I Really Wanna Know...

Who stopped the rain and pain on Friday?
Considering traders were likely in risk reduction mode, did Hank push the button?
It could be worse, right?
We could be ordinary?
How long have we been warning Minyans that General Electric (GE) and General Motors (GM) as financials in drag?
What's the best way to play what I perceive will be a huge secular trend: bicycles?
You call this a vacation week?
Discipline over conviction, right?

R.P.


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Jim M

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06-30-2008, 12:48 pm
This morning CNBC discussed Citigroup noteing how they felt bad that their stock had dropped off its peak of 57 to 16 dollars I remember Citi being named in multiple lawsuits with WorldCom Enron Adelphi and Parmalot Along with Arthur Anderson for a Read More

Jim M

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06-30-2008, 2:09 pm
Don't they have to hit a bottom to bounce? Even a dead cat bounce needs a bottom to bounce off of. Every one says were looking at a second wave to our credit crunch. That second wave is riding on top of the first as will the third and fourth Read More


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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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