A History of Hedge Funds

John Succo  Sep 26, 2008 10:20 am

A History of Hedge Funds
 
Excellent in theory, only dangerous in inferior practice.
 

 
The flood of new money didn’t matter much to the “Ten”- but it mattered a great deal to the other 90. As the demand for hedge fund managers exceeded supply, in my opinion, a lesser quality of manager was being allowed to set up shop and run money.

Most people, when comparing a name like John Merriweather (LTCM) with one like Irv Kessler (Deephaven), before 1998, would pick the former over the latter as a "better" hedge fund manager. In my mind, there's no comparison - but I believe the reverse is true. You won't find another trader better at analyzing and understanding risk (in a matter of seconds, and in his head) than Irv Kessler. A trader like Merriweather (who ignored the relationship between risk and leverage) will eventually blow up; it’s just a matter of time.

And here's the most important element in determining a good hedge fund manager from a bad one: Their understanding and application of risk.

It's ironic that those hedge fund managers who have destroyed huge amounts of wealth have run risk in a manner opposite to the one I've described: They have increased leverage, with an increase in degree and a reduction in price.

If you refer to my piece on LTCM, you will see that they used heavy leverage in trades where “potential” volatility or tail risk was very high, like in risk-arbitrage or even long/short equity.

Even today, we see a very disturbing trend: Managers leverage more and more the worse “price” gets. When convertible bonds are expensive (a bad price to buy), we see managers buy more and leverage more - instead of selling bonds and de-leveraging.

To their way of thinking (ignoring risk), a smaller spread (return) can be increased if it's leveraged. And they feel justified in this because that's what they're being paid to do: Buy convertible bonds and make a certain return. Irv would say instead that this is a disaster waiting to happen.

And here's my main point. It isn't the concept of a hedge fund that's bad, as the media may believe. It is not the concept of a hedge fund that may add volatility to the market or may cause a blow up that dominates the head lines or even puts the financial system at risk. It's the improper execution of hedge fund strategies by inferior managers using detrimental concepts of risk and leverage that cause these things. This is why regulation is absolutely necessary.

Regulation should focus on correcting the problem by requiring full transparency. Experienced analysis then of that transparency is essential in weeding the good hedge fund managers from the bad. This is why the lack of transparency by Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) -- which by my definition are the largest hedge funds in the world (except maybe for General Electric (GE), is so worrisome.

The regulators need to bark up the right trees first.
Rate this article:  (0 Votes)
Comments (2) See All Comments »
09-26-2008, 7:58 pm
John great to read another article of yours, thanks for taking the time.

As usual and in all things when it comes to longivity, doesn't matter how you cut its all about quality!
Read More
09-28-2008, 2:40 pm
I've always been astounded by the natural aversion of Americans to the concept of speculation, and thus a natural fear of derivatives and hedge funds.
There is an innate fear of these by the general non-investment community, and an immedi
Read More
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options.  Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.



The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Ticker Talk
Popular Tickers:
F »AMZN »HIG »
Select
  •  
Talk Now
Share this Talk on your site:
Send us your feedback

Our Professors

rss article alert