As for our markets, I haven’t really changed that much since early May’s momentum peak at 930 on the S&P 500 (SPX). Since then, my firm’s indicators have flopped/chopped between positive and negative, indicative of a trendless stock market -- which is why most of the indices I traded off the March lows are no higher now than they were back in May.

Moreover, last Monday (June 22) was a 90% downside day (volume and points were skewed more than 90% to the downside). It was the second 90% downside day in the past 2 weeks; caution is therefore recommended. That being said, I still think it’s a mistake to get too bearish. This recession is an anomaly, because productivity actually rose; this implies that companies cut costs dramatically. If demand picks up, corporate profits could explode.

The call for this week: We’ve now had 2 consecutive down weeks in the SPX, the first such occurrence since the March lows. Worryingly, both weeks contained a 90% downside day, which is why I remain cautious, but not bearish. Indeed, according to Bespoke Investment Group, July has historically been a strong month for equities, with an average gain of 1.17%, and a 70% positive monthly track record over the last 20 years. However, late last week, the Russell Rebalance (Russell Investment Group rebalanced its 25 US indices) created some noise that’s unlikely to abate until quarter’s end.

And speaking of noise, this morning I find out that even Greenpeace is against the Cap and Trade Bill. Curiouser and curiouser.