Keepin' It Real Estate: How to Play the Housing Rebound

Andrew Jeffery  Mar 05, 2009 10:05 am

Keepin' It Real Estate: How to Play the Housing Rebound
 
Getting to the "bottom" of the housing mess.
 

There isn’t an economic forecaster or media pundit alive who isn’t angling to be the first to (correctly) call the bottom in housing. Many have tried;  they all have failed.

But what happens when one’s right?

At some point in the future, broad home price indicators will cease to slide, then stabilize and even begin to move back up. When, and in what shape that trajectory will be, of course remains a mystery. As I've written in the past, the eventual recovery in housing will be a prolonged, localized event. The rising tide will not lift all boats, as the fundamentals of the old cliché “location, location, location” will be truer than ever.

And although predicting the date of this event is a fool’s errand, savvy home buyers will be ready to jump in ahead of those who remain in their shells long after the best bargains are behind them.

Here are 5 simple things you, the future home buyer can do now, without putting your nest egg at risk, to be ready for the coming opportunities in real estate:

1. Have patience.

There will be false bottoms, dead-cat bounces and treacherous pitfalls on the path to a recovery in real estate. Be patient. Don’t believe the hype - a couple months of strong sales numbers don’t foretell and imminent rebound in prices. Let the beginnings of a trend develop before you begin your home search in earnest. Future appreciation will come slowly, as tightened mortgage guidelines and fear of the collapse we’re now experiencing will not be soon forgotten.

2. Find a market, do your homework.

Had your eye on that classic Victorian around the corner from your kids’ future grade school, and hoping the elderly couple living there knock off just in time for you to swoop in at the estate sale? Expand your search.

Pick a couple of areas you could be happy in - look in multiple cities even. By focusing too narrowly on a single street, or even a single neighborhood, you could be missing out on what could be a fantastic opportunity on the other side of town. Don’t compromise, but play with your list of priorities to give yourself the most “exposure” to localized markets that may become increasingly attractive.

Tour the schools, scope the neighbors - hang around on Halloween to see who gets egged. RealtyTrac.com is a great resource for watching foreclosure activity all over the country and in your backyard. Their free site provides a great overview of cities and neighborhoods, but you have to pay for the house-by-house detail. Unfamiliar with an area? Use RealtyTrac to eyeball major neighborhood dividers (railroad tracks, highways, main roads, etc.) and examine foreclosure activity on either side.

3. Find a broker and start a housing “tracker”.

Real estate brokers can be a valuable tool in your home search - use them. 

An aside: The commonly used term “realtor” denotes an association with the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, the lobbyists who have been predicting a bottom since the downturn began over 3 years ago. Tread carefully with anyone proudly bearing an NAR pin. Contrary to what many tell you, you don't need to be a realtor to have access to MLS. But I digress.
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Comments (8) See All Comments »
03-06-2009, 12:00 am
Andrew's article is right on the mark and real estate is another tool in the portfolio. For example if the rent payment is $1000 and cost of owning a home is $1200, it makes sense to purchase a home instead of paying property owner's mort
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03-06-2009, 1:34 am
I agree Andrew made a good arguement to look at the purchase as an inventment, and as such you have to consider risk. I'd offer that just because the monthly payments between rent and a mortgage are close that it is not clear that the mortgage
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03-07-2009, 7:29 pm
Niels -- you make a good point that Realtors' (and brokers') Monopoly is dwindling. However, they still guard the previous sales data like a hawk. Sites like Zillow and Trulia mix in actual sales with foreclosures reverting back to the ba
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03-07-2009, 7:32 pm
Hi Taylor,

I do think that if people become more educated about the true financial implications of buying a home, and that prices may not always go up, we'll be a lot better off in the future. There really is no historical preceden
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03-07-2009, 11:57 pm
The historical precedent for house prices going down is simply the reversion to the mean. Houses have been overvalued, so they are readjusting. House prices have tracked fairly tightly with inflation unless there's a speculative bubble. That
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