Bank of America Plays Hardball; Citigroup Plays Dumb

Jeff Macke  Jan 12, 2009 2:30 pm

Bank of America Plays Hardball; Citigroup Plays Dumb
 
Congress allows Citi to end-run bankruptcy law.
 

 

Greetings from New York; if taking trading losses was either easy or felt good everyone would do it. As it is, very few people do - which is why, as a born contrarian as well as a natural pain in the arse, I'm more than happy to belabor to the importance of having a sell-discipline in your trading tool chest.

And, since the best lessons involve the educator suffering extreme pain (so you don't have to), let's focus on this week's forays into the Ag plays.

In brief, I got long Mosaic (MOS), as I liked the price action in response to terrible guidance. My price target was $40; my stop-loss was $35. I harvested most of the gains at $40 and dumped the rest on Friday's pullback. Made enough to take Mrs. Jeffmacke to the movies. With Valkyrie and all its campy genius not playing nearby, I delayed the movie and kept trading Ags, this time rolling into Potash (POT). The goal was $90, the stop was $80.



Here's the thing about stops and why you need to stick to them: The Mosaic trade was decent, the Potash trade was lousy. That said, sticking to my disciplines on each trade limited my losses and kept the bottom line of my Ag trades as a whole slightly in the black, if only very slightly.

Putting it in terms that applies to every married man's life: I can get out of Valkyrie by reiterating to Mrs. Jeffmacke that the movie is a story about a 65-year-old failed plot to kill Hitler and stars Tom Cruise wearing an eye patch.

Had I chosen to fight the tape on Potash, I'd be spending the day explaining that Daddy just needs a little quiet time today. Worst case scenario, had I chucked the idea of stops entirely and decided to "dollar cost average" into today's 10-buck drop, I'd be praying for a late day rally so I could avoid explaining to Anne that dog food has all the nutrients a growing child needs.

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Comments (5) See All Comments »
01-12-2009, 12:04 pm
Agree with both of your points though, in fairness, Tom Cruise doesn't play Rommel but rather another failed Hitler assassin.

I'm leaning towards technicals and the emotion of the tape over fundamentals for one really good
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01-12-2009, 2:57 pm
If you look closely beyond all of the emergency intervention, the patient is already brain-dead, sort of like dead men walking.
There is no hope, there is no strategy, there isn't even an abilty to remember the BS promised just weeks ago
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01-12-2009, 3:11 pm
I just can't see it.

Can't see using TA in this market, either. TA requires a series of related points. Every time they change the rules the points are now unrelated. The worst is when the rules are changed and they don'
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01-12-2009, 8:05 pm
It's hard to find them any more in the city proper. Outside the city is a different story but inside the lines it is teaming with yankees from Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and just about every other northeastern state. I love my yankee frien
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01-13-2009, 10:35 am
And the funny thing about THAT is that Najarian and I spend many of our of-camera time exchanging Nature Boy Ric Flair imitations and stories.

HUGE Nature Boy fans!
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