Commercial Real Estate: A Ticking Time Bomb for Banks?

Minyan Peter
  Jun 10, 2009 12:20 pm

Commercial Real Estate: A Ticking Time Bomb for Banks?
 
New rules could pose severe limit on financials' ability to withstand future earnings shocks.
 

 
This morning's Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Treasury is working on changes that will enable commercial real estate borrowers (e.g. General Growth Properties (GGP), CB Richard Ellis (CBG), Simon Property Group (SPG), etc.) to more easily restructure maturing debt so as to avoid foreclosure. And one of the most likely means will be through lower interest rates.

What may surprise readers is this: When banks lower the interest rate on existing loans, there's no immediate earnings hit (and this is in contrast to restructured securities, in which there's typically an immediate fair-market-value hit). This could affect any number of banks -- from JPMorgan (JPM) to Citigroup (C) to Bank of America (BAC) to Morgan Stanley (MS).

So if it isn't immediate, when is the impact felt?

In the future, when interest income is lower as these losses are effectively "amortized" over time.

I know the whole world is focused on the charge-off line in bank earnings, but, with each passing day, it feels like the regulators are moving more and more "losses" into interest income (such as the "caps" recently imposed on credit-card issuers). While this may make credit losses look better in the short run, I would offer that all of these actions are likely to seriously impair bank net interest margins for some time to come.

Worse, as someone who believes that net interest margin represents the lung capacity of the banking industry, lower interest income seriously limits banks' ability to withstand future earnings shocks.
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Comments (3) See All Comments »
06-10-2009, 12:49 pm
Anecdote from Roanoke
I was talking with a friend in commercial real estate socially last weekend. He commented the local banks he currently has loans with and long relationships with are getting out of the commercial real estate lending busine
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06-10-2009, 3:57 pm
actually those are his options - period

I'm in Tucson and this is the status

Bank of the West - well capitalized and part of BNP PARIBAS

NO MORE COMMERCIAL UNLESS OWNER OCCUPIED AND 50% down

W
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06-10-2009, 6:09 pm
No doubt.

The moral hazard created is the next bubble.

Why not skim the rents and skip town? Isn't that the example that has been set by the government and the banks and insurance companies?

This is why b
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