Investors Quietly Flee Credit Card Debt Andrew Jeffery Aug 05, 2008 1:45 pm |
![]() |
![]() |
|
||||||||||||
|
During the housing boom, it was easy to run up a big credit card bill, then pay it off with a cash-out refinance or home equity line. When banks ratcheted back loan guidelines following the collapse of the mortgage market, there was a reversal of fortune: Paying the mortgage with plastic was the only way to get by.
Now, the jig is up. A slumping economy and higher fuel prices have chewed through the last of consumers’ discretionary dollars.
Buyers of securities backed by credit card debt are becoming skittish and demanding higher returns on their investment. This depreciates the value of the investment and forces issuers to hold onto bonds longer, since deals take longer to sell.
Big lenders like American Express (AXP) and Bank of America (BAC) are having to fork over higher interest rates to keep investors happy. That means less profit for them - and less of a cushion as loans go sour. Just ask Citigroup (C), who reported a second-quarter loss on assets backed by credit card debt.
A common misconception about credit card securities is that they’re structured to handle high delinquency rates, and are therefore safer bets. Indeed, some argue that years of historical data show cardholders rarely default en masse, and that delinquency patterns are well understood. Of course, they said the same thing about mortgage-backed securities.
Asset-backed securities, or ABSs, are structured based on historical data and expectations of future cash flows. Since credit cards typically carry a higher default rate than, say, mortgages, their ABSs are designed to absorb these losses.
Deals therefore go sour not when delinquencies increase in an absolute sense, but instead when they deviate from historical norms. For more on this subject and the coming wave of prime mortgage-backed securities defaults, see The Next Subprime.
Lenders will be forced to cut back credit lines to stem the bleeding, and comprehensive new regulations will further inhibit consumers’ ability to borrow on the cheap.
Many are already calling this the dropping of the credit crisis' other shoe; in reality, this has been going on for a while. Credit card defaults have been inching up for months, as results from American Express, Capital One (COF) and Discover Financial (DFS) have shown. The only difference now is that it's getting mainstream media attention.
But here's the kicker: With mortgage debt, at least lenders can seize the house as a last resort.
Not so with credit card debt: Just try repossessing a flatscreen TV.
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
discuss this article and more on the mv exchange |
|
Get real-time options trading ideas from Steve Smith, veteran options trader and newsletter author, plus let him show you the way to cut risk and boost your returns through the strategic use of options. Click here for a free 14 day trial to OptionSmith by Steve Smith.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2009 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| add rss feed | free article alerts |
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
DC
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennesee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Local Guides


















