How The Plan Stacks Up

Minyan Peter
  Oct 14, 2008 11:45 am

How The Plan Stacks Up
 
Grading today's government action.
 

 

Last week, in response to Ben Bernanke's request for help, I offered a template for how I thought the regulators could best attack the problems in our financial system.

I thought it would be useful to evaluate today's actions against my proposal.

1. Establish a moratorium on all US bank common and preferred dividends. - No.



2. Declare insolvent all banks on the FDIC and FSLIC problem bank list and merge them into a stronger financial institution (any bank with assets larger than $20 billion whose September 30th Tier 1 capital ratio is less than 8%). - No.

3. Take the $700 billion authorized by Congress and put it as common stock into any bank sufficient to raise the system wide bank Tier 1 capital level to at least 10%. Then go back to Congress and get authorization for another $500 billion, just in case. - $250 billion, while good, is insufficient and it's not common stock: It's preferred.

4. Establish a marketplace for the public trading of toxic debt. However, don't provide government funding to purchase the assets. This will begin a flooring process. Tell banks they have 12 months to get the bad stuff off the books. And as assets are sold at a loss, commit to using the $500 billion in additional funding. Agree to “make whole” all financial-institution Tier-1 capital ratios at no less than 6% through 2010. - N/A.

5. Go raise super senior preferred stock from the private sector and pay market rate dividends on it. - No, the government is hoping for "crowding in" versus followers.

I will give Sheila Bair credit for her change in the deposit insurance ceiling to unlimited. I liked the trade off for corporations: "You will get your principal back, but at the cost of interest on it." Seems like a very fair trade to me.

Most troubling to me in all of this is the inherent assumption on the part of Treasury that what we have is a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis.

The system needs more capital: common shareholder capital.  
 

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Comment (1) See All Comments »
10-14-2008, 1:33 pm
Peter, this plan looks like an obsession to save banks' shareholders, and only secondly banks' itself. Moreover IMHO proves that assumed stronger banks (JPM) are not so strong. European plans appear more tough towards shareholders and man
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