It’s clear that supply has stayed in the range of 86 million barrels per day, while demand has dropped to the range of 84 to 85 million barrels per day. If oil demand rises by 3%, demand will outstrip supply again.

The coming energy crisis will lead to choices between food or fuel for many people. Total world oil supply is in a permanent decline, but demand will continue to rise.

Now the bad news for Americans: We make up 4.3% of the world’s population and consume 26% of the world’s oil. Europe makes up 6.8% of the world’s population and consumes 11% of the world’s oil. After the oil shock of the 1970s, Europe decided to dramatically increase taxes on gasoline. The high cost of gasoline forced people to buy smaller, fuel-efficient cars. In Germany, cars average 44 mpg; in the US, they average 22 mpg.

The coming peak-oil shock will affect the United States more dramatically than any other country. Are you prepared for $5-per- gallon gasoline? We’re 20 years too late to stop this from happening. Our supply is drying up. More drilling won’t work. Neither will higher fuel efficiency standards.

Most Americans live in suburbs far from work. Our food supply requires trucks to deliver it to our stores. The US military consumes 400,000 barrels of oil per day and spends $13 billion of your tax dollars per year to keep their machines functioning.

The only 2 people sounding the alarm have been Matt Simmons and T. Boone Pickens. Mr. Simmons warns that the best energy geologists and engineers are now retiring, with no one to take their place. The global oil and gas infrastructure is rusting away. The cost to rebuild: Nearly $100 trillion and 10 to 20 million workers.

But this wouldn’t be wasted money: Mr. Pickens argues that, by investing $1 trillion to build wind facilities in the corridor from Texas to North Dakota, we could produce 20% of the nation’s electricity by 2020. This would free up our vast natural-gas resources to be used as fuel for truck fleets - and ultimately, for automobiles. It would also create jobs in America, and make us less dependent on foreign oil.

None of these ideas will prevent $5 gasoline in our near future. But they do mean we’ll have a future.