Random Thoughts: What Will Month-End Bring?

Todd Harrison  Jul 31, 2008 11:30 am

Random Thoughts: What Will Month-End Bring?
 
Keep risk tight as we star a new 30 day stretch.
 

 


The Following Buzz Appeared at 9:43 this morning and is being shared for the benefit of Minyans not yet on the Buzz (what’s keeping you?!?!?)

I entered this morning's fray with small positions in the financials (Citigroup (C) calls, MBIA (MBI)). 

Into the opening punk, I added back my Citi calls (sold into yesterday's rally) and scooped some Wachovia (WB) calls (traded dry yesterday) and Mother Morgan (MS) calls ( will have
acne through $40, if and when).

My risk leash is tight (pure trades) but
I'm a buyer of dips into S&P 1235 and BKX 60 for the 'bear market rally through S&P 1300.

Nothing crazy, mind you but that's my thinking as we find our way. 

Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always eating...

More Randoms
 

  • Into the upside reversal, I forced myself to sell a snivlet of the Citigroup calls as a function of discipline.

  • Buy dips, sell blips, stick, move, duck, goose and all that jazz. Analogies abound but the message is the same: the mechanics of the swing are always more important than the results of the at-bat.

  • If you could play any instrument in any band, what would it be and who would it be with?

  • There's an "easy" trade each day. That Snapper off this morning’s lows might have been it.

  • "Easy" is a relative term, I know.

  • If and when Disney (DIS) trades with a $20-something handle, I might dip my schtick in Mickey's wick.

  • Please note S&P 1282 and BKX 68.5 on a closing basis.

  • IF and when, they would represent  "higher highs" after the "higher lows," yet another stealth positive. And yeah, that's a BIG IF.


Musings on Month-End
 

  • Hedge funds are having their worst month in eight years.
    • The popular “long commodities, short financials” wishboned performance.
    • Some funds are reporting being down 12%.

  • Mutual Funds had a better month.
    • Especially the ones that averaged down in the Financials.

  • Recent flows have been dominated by the Hedge Funds.
    • Volumes have been quiet vs. earlier this month.

  • Unforeseen crosscurrents on the close.
    • Today will be interesting to see how the Financials close, especially with the rally we witnessed yesterday in Crude.
    • Has the hedge fund community covered their shorts in the Financials?
    • Will they press their short into the close?
    • Or will the MF window dress their Financial long exposure?


R.P.

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Positions in WB, C, MS, MBI, SGP

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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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