Covering Crude?-Minyanville

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Covering Crude?

Todd Harrison Jun 04, 2008 3:15 pm


		Bears watch oil's 2008 trendline.

I return from my all-day MarketWatch meld--which was awesome--to find alotta flickers and tickers vying for my attention. As I'm jamming to ketchup and stahvin' like Marvin, I offer these first blush thought in no particular order:

I've unwound the remainder of my negative energy bet. Why? First, as discussed when we slapped it on two weeks ago, it was a pure trade rather than trying to pinpoint the crossroads between inflation and deflation. Second, I wanna see how crude reacts into the 2008 trendline, particularly in the face of the sudden rush of "I told you so" bears.
I do believe there's more "there" on the downside. The great thing about trading is that we can reinitiate exposure, either from higher or lower levels. Trades are made to be taken, however, and Winky Wright wants a breather.
SEARCH:

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In the interest of being forthright, I do have some residual Halliburton (HAL) puts on my sheets. Stems and seeds but so it's said.
I've also covered the CME short we discussed yesterday. Same thought--while it's "broken" under $400 and vulnerable to regulatory rumblings, $20 in a single session is more than enough for moi. Bulls and bears make money. Bacon gets shaken.
MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK)? Can't say it's a shocker. What remains to be seen is the contagion vs. containment fallout. Again, I don't have a horse in that race--weird, I know, given the BKX 75, but when it doubt, prudence dictates waiting it out.
Lest I ever take the Minyanville Buzz & Banter for granted, it provided a play by play while I was away from the fray. If you're diggin' it as I am, please be a Faberge commercial. If you tell two friends, they'll tell two friends, and so on and so on and so on!

R.P.


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06-04-2008, 3:42 pm
hey toddo, u mentioned boots n coots (WEL) awhile back i checked it out and decided to back up the truck, at $1.35 a share today its shakin bakin @ a new 52 week high LUVIN EVERY MINUTE OF IT, LUVIN EVERY MINUTE Read More

Mr Bacan

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06-04-2008, 4:11 pm
All I can say is Yikes! So many experts with so many opinions. I agree with your analysis and article, but now large forces seem to be at work. The Billionaires (all paraphrased): Soros: There is a spe Read More

Mr Bacan

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06-04-2008, 8:25 pm
I also want to suggest that maybe there should be an index or rating system say (^BULSX or BULSX 1 to 10), similar to ^VIX that measures the amount of BS associated with an economic prediction, or commodity valuation, due to Read More


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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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