In the Retail Sector -- Buyer Beware

Steve Smith  Jun 25, 2009 1:20 pm

In the Retail Sector -- Buyer Beware
 
Market retreats as consumer-spending remains down.
 

 

The recent retreat in the stock market was in no small part attributed to concerns that consumer spending will remain damp for the foreseeable future.

At least, that's been the message from recent earnings reports from Best Buy (BBY) and Nike (NKE) -- both of which came up short on top-line revenue numbers and relied on cost-cutting to keep bottom-line EPS in line with diminished expectations.

So how to do you explain today’s action that sees companies such as Dress Barn (DBRN), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and Gymboree (GYMB) -- names that hardly have the blue-chip branding or name recognition of the above -- all up nearly 10% today? 



Although they're receiving investors' love, it might be for fleeting reasons. And that's causing a run of call-option buying on speculation that these names will be turnaround stories and continue to run higher. But buyer beware of chasing these names higher: Not only are these essentially second-tier names, but each has relatively weak balance sheets. In fact, the latter 2 have flirted with bankruptcy.

Opening the Barn to Tweens

Dress Barn is jumping on news that it will be buying the even more beleaguered Tween Brands (TWN) -- which has seen its own stock jump 25% to $6.50 today. Usually, the shares of an acquiring company -- especially one paying a 20% premium for a money-losing operation -- would take a small hit while investors sort through the details.

Instead, this move is being greeted as a great find from the bargain bin. Indeed, the $157 million price tag is small, and the move will expand the Barn’s customer base from older nags to youthful colts.

But teenage apparel is notoriously cultish, and there's no guarantee this is a looming turnaround. Instead, the combined company will be faced with closing underperforming locations in a still-depressed and sinking real-estate market.

A Penny Saved Isn't a Penny Earned

In the case of Bed, Bath & Beyond, today’s gains are fueled by the better-than-expected earnings. But again, the profits were strictly the result of cost-cutting rather than an increase in revenue. The outlook for home furnishings of non-essential items -- like that must-have $40 egg poacher with matching oven mitts -- remains bleak.

Don’t expect Bed, Bath & Beyond to expand much beyond its current store base. And while it may benefit from the bankruptcy of Linens & Things, the recent report from Best Buy -- which no longer has Circuit City to contend with -- shows that a lack of competition doesn't necessarily mean higher sales.

Monkey Business

Gymboree presents a more curious case. As it operates in a similar space as Tween Brands, it seems to be on takeover speculation that the overcrowded sector -- occupied by Children’s Place (PLCE) and GAP (GPS), among others -- will be due for consolidation.

Gymboree options have traded 5 times their daily average today, with the focus being in the July $35 calls. Playing the takeover game can be fun, but I’d advise using caution since it can easily result in a tumble.

16 of 17 (94%) found this helpful
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Comments (3) See All Comments »
06-25-2009, 1:25 pm
DRBN has very smart management. Very smart. Women are sick of spending $300 when they can get bascially the same schmatta for $150. DRBN can now sell designer labels for the same price they used to selel house labels, due to the erosion of label valu
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06-25-2009, 2:13 pm
tom, I agree that fashion is.... basically fashion and for that reason can never be bullish on name brand retailers. It has cost me money shorting TOM, RL etc in the past. So your comments that DBRN might benefit from a new frugality have real meri
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06-25-2009, 3:10 pm
...for recent profits, i agree - cost cutting is great, but only to a point...

sales are needed, but i doubt they'll come from currently indebted citizens -

a history of this country's immigrants shows a proven s
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