Global government bond yields were mostly lower during the past week, as investors dismissed the threat of inflation and priced in concerns about a global recession.
The ten-year US Treasury Note declined by 4 basis points to 3.83%, the UK ten-year Gilt yield by 13 basis points to 4.48%, the German ten-year Bund yield by 5 basis points to 4.17% and the Japanese ten-year bond yield by 5 basis points to 1.42%.
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Currencies
The US dollar maintained its recent rally as the currency benefited from the view that foreign central banks will be quicker to cut rates than the Fed will be to tighten rates.
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The past week saw the greenback rising against the euro (+0.7% – a six-month high), the British pound (+1.6%), the Swiss franc (+0.2%), the Australian dollar (+1.2%) and the Canadian dollar (+1.6%).
Sterling has come under further selling pressure as pessimism about the UK economic outlook intensified, dropping to a 12-year low on a trade-weighted basis ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate announcement next week.
The Japanese yen was the only currency to gain against the US dollar during the past week, closing 1.1% higher on the back of better-than-expected economic data and the announcement of a $107 billion fiscal stimulus package.
Commodities
The dollar’s strength and growing concerns of slowing demand knocked dollar-denominated commodity prices as seen in the Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index, which declined by 0.8%.
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West Texas Intermediate crude traded between $115.0 and $118.76 a barrel last week before closing 0.8% up at $115.46 on Friday. The gain was relatively small given the impending arrival of Hurricane Gustav and concerns about the geopolitical situation with Russia, but word from the Department of Energy that it would release strategic oil stocks to combat any disruption kept oil prices in check. (The Gulf of Mexico is responsible for 25% of US crude oil production and 15% of US natural gas production.)
The chart below shows the past week’s movements for the various commodities:
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